Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 14

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio di Fiorentino (Fiorentino)


	Fiorentino		Murata

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.6
	1.86	3.14	3.78
	1.91	3.27	3.88	Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.75
	1.94	3.1	3.8
	1.88	3.14	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.75)	3.11 ↓ (3.59)	3.77 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentino
47.1%

Draw
29%

Murata
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

25.5%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

24%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentino's form might have worsened.

Murata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentino than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Murata than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Fiorentino - Murata Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Ben Kacem M. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 0, Ben Kacem M. ⚽, Evaristi M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, Gjonaj A. ⚽,
72', 3 - 0, Belward S. ⚽, Bottoni Luca (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentino won 3.

Fiorentino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Murata has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Fiorentino is the team to beat.

We predict that Fiorentino will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Fiorentino won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentino won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
13.12.25	Faetano - Fiorentino	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Fiorentino - San Marino Academy U22	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	AC Libertas - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Fiorentino - Cailungo	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Fiorentino - Cosmos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWL
- SS Murata
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
13.12.25	Murata - Virtus	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Tre Fiori - Murata	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	Murata - Pennarossa	1:2 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
26.11.25	Murata - La Fiorita	0:3 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
22.11.25	Tre Penne - Murata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
29.03.25	Murata - Fiorentino	1:0
01.12.24	Fiorentino - Murata	1:0
13.01.24	Fiorentino - Murata	2:1
11.04.23	Murata - Fiorentino	2:1
18.12.22	Fiorentino - Murata	1:0
16.05.19	Murata - Fiorentino	3:0
02.12.18	Murata - Fiorentino	0:2

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