Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.33	3.05	2.9
	2.54	3.2	3
	2.41	3.01	3.15	Watch
	2.52	2.98	2.96	Watch
	2.33	3.05	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (3.1)	3.06 ↑ (2.88)	2.98 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
38.4%

Draw
30.4%

Lusitânia
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

31.7%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

31.1%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fafe's performance.

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lusitânia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fafe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lusitânia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fafe - Lusitânia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 11. Picas 8. Braga V. 22. Bruninho 7. Leite T.	1. Cioletti G. (G) 85. Castro D. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 29. Cerveira T. 6. Martins H. 18. Pereira D. 80. Renato Luis 11. Pereira M. 77. Goba Zakpa (C) 12. Arsenio
Substitutes
1. Enes Guimaraes F. (G) 12. Farias E. 9. Kodama R. 6. Lucas Vital 44. Morais B. 5. Nandinho 10. Serra Matos P. M. 3. Silva G. 2. Sousa B.	7. Avto 21. Joao Vasco 28. Mesquita T. 5. Oliveira J. 10. Ribeiro S. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 3. Silverio 88. Teixeira M. 14. Valente M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Pereira M. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Bruninho (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 1 - 2, Goba Zakpa ⚽,
60', Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↓, Serra Matos P. M. ↑,
63', Arsenio ↓, Avto ↑,
66', Avto 🟨,
69', Pereira M. 🟨,
70', Picas ↓, Farias E. ↑,
70', Bruninho ↓, Kodama R. ↑,
72', Goba Zakpa ↓, Valente M. ↑,
72', Renato Luis ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
90+3', Pereira M. ↓, Morais B. ↑,
90+3', Cerveira T. ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
90+3', Pereira D. ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
90+4', Morais B. 🟨,
90+11', Farias E. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fafe won 1.

Recent matches Fafe is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lusitânia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fafe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Fafe will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Fafe won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9:17 (average 1.1:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Fafe won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:8 (average 0.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
09.02.25	Fafe - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Fafe - Anadia	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Amarante - Fafe	0:0 ✺
11.01.25	São João de Ver - Fafe	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWTTL
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.25	Lusitânia - Varzim	2:0 ✺
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Trofense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Lusitânia - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Vilaverdense - Lusitânia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.12.24	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2
25.08.24	Lusitânia - Fafe	4:0
17.12.23	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:3
03.09.23	Fafe - Lusitânia	0:3
16.04.22	Fafe - Lusitânia	0:0
19.03.22	Lusitânia - Fafe	0:2
30.01.22	Fafe - Lusitânia	2:3

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