Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 14

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.92	2.98	2.32
	3.12	3.05	2.4
	3.03	3.04	2.43	Watch
	3	2.88	2.3
	3.11	2.95	2.27
	2.9	3	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.33)	2.98 ↑ (2.91)	2.34 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
30.3%

Draw
30.6%

Fafe
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

31.4%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

31.7%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Amarante - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 6. Almeida F. 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 3. Mendes F. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 28. Pedro R. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J. 80. Ventura 22. Vivas S.	64. Martins T. (G) 20. Amorim J. 26. Batista J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 85. Castro D. 10. Ka 11. Picas 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 9. Santos J. 13. Vigario J. 5. Ze Oliveira
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 17. Sousa G. 64. Vila D.	8. Braga V. 77. Carlos Daniel 21. Davis SIlva 95. Fonseca T. 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 19. Leal J. 78. Pinto G. 24. Sampaio T. 79. Teixeira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', Santos J. ↓, Carlos Daniel ↑,
36', Batista J. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Filipe J. ⚽,
45+1', Carlos Daniel 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, Ka (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 1 - 2, Carlos Daniel ⚽, Ka (A),
61', Almeida F. ↓, Arome ↑,
66', Amorim J. ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
69', Ventura ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
69', Filipe J. ↓, Ribeiro O. ↑,
75', Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Antunes Tiago C. J. ⚽,
85', Picas ↓, Leal J. ↑,
85', Ka ↓, Pinto G. ↑,
90', 3 - 2, Arome ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 0.

Amarante is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fafe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Amarante may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Amarante won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Amarante - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 27.45%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	Amarante - Marco 09	3:2 ✺
06.12.25	Sanjoanense - Amarante	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Varzim - Amarante	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Trofense - Amarante	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWLTW
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	Fafe - Trofense	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Fafe - Paredes	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Fafe - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Sanjoanense - Fafe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
10.10.25	Fafe - Amarante	3:0
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3
18.01.25	Amarante - Fafe	0:0
06.10.24	Fafe - Amarante	4:1
Taça de Portugal
08.09.24	Fafe - Amarante	1:4
03.09.17	Fafe - Amarante	0:1 ET

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