Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Portugal	16:30	Canal 11


	Fafe		Trofense

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.50	5.75
	1.58	3.35	5.1
	1.59	3.55	6.17
	1.61	3.61	5.8	Watch
	1.54	3.45	6
	1.51	3.64	5.83
	1.59	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.47)	3.5 ↓ (3.98)	5.66 ↓ (6.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
58.1%

Draw
25.9%

Trofense
16%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.7%

23.2%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

22.1%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fafe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Fafe - Trofense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kudakovskiy P. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 26. Batista J. (C) 3. Pereira P. 15. Breno 16. Dinis G. 10. Carvalho D. 8. Mimito 11. Picas 9. Correia M. 13. Veiga T.	31. Balde M. (G) 7. Oliveira J. 3. Lucca Carvalho 50. Silva T. 21. Oliveira T. 22. Matheus Claudino 65. Gomes A. 89. Nuninho (C) 30. Feliz 11. Kiki 9. Kevyn Santos
Substitutes
24. Amaral J. 88. Asamoah K. 35. Cardoso F. 77. Carlos Daniel 99. Carneiro G. (G) 28. Ferreira B. 90. Otumba P. 7. Rafael Martins 6. Sequeira	77. Andrade M. (G) . Bruno 39. Kaua Souza 1. Moura R. (G) 28. Nunes D. 83. Oliveira W. 70. Peixoto R. 25. Samuca 24. Weliton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Nuninho ⚽,
40', Mimito ↓, Otumba P. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Dinis G. ↓, Asamoah K. ↑,
50', Lucca Carvalho 🟨,
58', Oliveira T. 🟨,
60', Pereira P. ↓, Amaral J. ↑,
60', Carvalho D. ↓, Rafael Martins ↑,
61', Kevyn Santos ↓, Weliton ↑,
65', 🟨,
69', Ribeiro O. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Correia M. ⚽,
74', Veiga T. ↓, Carlos Daniel ↑,
76', Oliveira J. ↓, Nunes D. ↑,
83', Kiki ↓, Samuca ↑,
83', Feliz ↓, Kaua Souza ↑,
83', Matheus Claudino ↓, Oliveira W. ↑,
90+3', Carlos Daniel 🟥,
90+8', 1 - 2, Lucca Carvalho ⚽,
90+10', 2 - 2, Batista J. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6th in the Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 8th in the Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 1.

Fafe is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Trofense is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Fafe carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Fafe has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:18 (averaging 1.4:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fafe against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 7:9 goals (averaging 1.4:1.8 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Fafe - Lajense	4:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.26	Paredes - Fafe	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Leça - Fafe	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Paços de Ferreira - Fafe	0:1 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
21.08.26	Fafe - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWT
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
12.09.26	Trofense - Leça	1:4 ✺
05.09.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Varzim - Trofense	5:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
22.08.26	Trofense - São João de Ver	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Vianense - Trofense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	Fafe - Trofense	1:2
13.09.25	Trofense - Fafe	5:1
14.12.24	Trofense - Fafe	3:2
31.08.24	Fafe - Trofense	1:0
27.04.24	Fafe - Trofense	2:3
24.02.24	Trofense - Fafe	1:3
13.01.24	Trofense - Fafe	0:1

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