Match Info

Super Lig - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Cakir O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		Gaziantep

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.57	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.55
	2.74	3.26	2.55
	3.09	3.37	2.42
	2.99	3.34	2.33	Watch
	2.7	3.43	2.59	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.61)	3.3 (3.3)	2.52 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
34.1%

Draw
28.5%

Gaziantep
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

28.9%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.4%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Gaziantep has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gaziantep than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gaziantep Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Gaziantep will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Karagümrük: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Grbic I. (G) 6. Cankaya A. R. (C) 32. Kadioglu M. 27. Ugrekhelidze N. 29. Balkovec J. 11. Johnson D. 14. Doh M. 21. Cukur T. 8. Ozcan B. 23. Larsson S. 91. Gray A.	71. Bozan M. (G) 2. Perez L. 4. Kizildag A. 14. Abena M. 77. Rodrigues K. 6. Kabasakal M. 3. Camara D. 10. Kozlowski K. 44. Maxim A. (C) 11. Lungoyi C. 9. Bayo M.
Substitutes
99. Beklevic F. (G) 37. Camacho J. 94. Cinar A. 34. Demirol A. 19. Fofana D. D. 88. Gumus O. 72. Kalayci B. 33. Kurukalip C. 70. Serginho 17. Sivri A.	7. Bacuna J. 20. Gorgen Z. (G) 17. Guler S. 32. Kabadayi Y. 26. Kalin A. O. 27. Kulasin E. 5. Ndiaye B. 38. Nizet R. 30. Sangare N. 23. Sanuc T. T.
Coaches
Licka M.	Yilmaz B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Ugrekhelidze N. 🟨,
29', Kizildag A. 🟨,
29', Camara D. 🟨,
44', Maxim A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Abena M. ↓, Guler S. ↑,
46', Cukur T. ↓, Camacho J. ↑,
46', Gray A. ↓, Fofana D. D. ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Maxim A. (Pen),
66', Larsson S. ↓, Serginho ↑,
67', Kizildag A. ↓, Sanuc T. T. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Kozlowski K. ⚽, Lungoyi C. (A),
80', Bayo M. ↓, Kabadayi Y. ↑,
81', Balkovec J. ↓, Kurukalip C. ↑,
81', Ozcan B. ↓, Sivri A. ↑,
86', Kabasakal M. ↓, Ndiaye B. ↑,
86', Camara D. ↓, Bacuna J. ↑,
90+8', Fofana D. D. (Pen),
90+12', Kabadayi Y. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 1.

Karagümrük has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gaziantep is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gaziantep may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gaziantep: Ablak A. (Knee Injury) M'Bakata S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gaziantep: Boateng E. (Inactive) Kabadayi Y. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Karagümrük won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
27.09.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Trabzonspor	3:4 ✺
21.09.25	Samsunspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
17.09.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kasımpaşa	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Antalyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLW
- Gaziantep FK
Turkish Super League
27.09.25	Gaziantep - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Trabzonspor - Gaziantep	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Gaziantep - Kocaelispor	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Kasımpaşa - Gaziantep	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Gaziantep - Gençlerbirliği	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
18.05.24	Gaziantep - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1
23.12.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gaziantep	0:3
13.11.22	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gaziantep	3:3
08.01.22	Gaziantep - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1
14.08.21	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gaziantep	3:2
03.02.21	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gaziantep	2:0
20.09.20	Gaziantep - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:2

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