Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 6

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Fazendense		Os Marialvas

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.50	1.57
	5.10	3.55	1.55
	5.10	3.49	1.55
	5.20	3.67	1.59	Watch
	5.00	3.40	1.52
	5.67	3.76	1.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.18 ↑ (4.72)	3.56 ↓ (3.8)	1.55 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fazendense
17.2%

Draw
25.1%

Os Marialvas
57.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.5%

24.2%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

23.4%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fazendense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Os Marialvas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fazendense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Os Marialvas than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Fazendense - Os Marialvas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
68', 1 - 1, ⚽,
85', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 14th in the Relegation and 3rd).

Recent results have been tough for Fazendense (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Marialvas shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this matchup, Marialvas is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Os Marialvas	6	4	1	1	10:3	7	13
14	Fazendense	6	0	1	5	7:17	-10	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fazendense
Taça de Portugal
17.10.26	Fazendense - Estrela da Amadora	1:2 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
11.10.26	Atlético da Malveira - Fazendense	3:1 ✺
27.09.26	Alverca B - Fazendense	5:0 ✺
13.09.26	Fazendense - Elvas	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.26	Fazendense - Moçarriense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- CF Os Marialvas
Taça de Portugal
16.10.26	Chaves - Os Marialvas	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
11.10.26	Os Marialvas - Sertanense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Ovarense - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
13.09.26	Nazarenos - Os Marialvas	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Os Marialvas - Fatima	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LTWWW

Fazendense - Os Marialvas