Match Info

ITALY: SERIE C - GROUP B - ROUND 24

Date: 28 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Bruno Recchioni (Fermo)


	Fermana		Montevarchi

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.25
	2.28	3	2.95
	2.16	2.9	3.25
	2.16	3.02	3.29
	2.2	2.8	3.4
	2.18	3.05	3.34	Watch
	2.16	3.05	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.73)	2.96 ↓ (3.16)	3.25 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fermana
41.6%

Draw
30.6%

Montevarchi
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

28.3%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

27.5%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fermana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fermana's form might have worsened.

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montevarchi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fermana than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fermana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montevarchi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Fermana - Montevarchi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Fermana is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Montevarchi is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Montevarchi have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Fermana to win the game is with odds 2.37.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Fermana won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Fermana won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Fermana
Italian Serie C Group B
22.01.23	Cesena - Fermana	1:1 ✺
15.01.23	Fermana - Recanatese	0:0 ✺
08.01.23	Gubbio - Fermana	1:3 ✺
23.12.22	Fermana - Fiorenzuola	4:2 ✺
17.12.22	Fermana - Sassari Torres	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 TTWWW
- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
22.01.23	Montevarchi - Siena	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Montevarchi - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
08.01.23	Olbia - Montevarchi	2:1 ✺
23.12.22	Montevarchi - Gubbio	2:1 ✺
17.12.22	Montevarchi - Rimini	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
24.09.22	Montevarchi - Fermana	2:2
23.02.22	Montevarchi - Fermana	2:0
12.09.21	Fermana - Montevarchi	0:1

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