Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 26

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Gimenez P. (Arg)


	Ferro Carril Oeste		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	3
	2.45	3.1	2.7
	2.55	2.95	2.95
	2.48	3.05	3.19
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.47	3.08	3.08
	2.42	3.05	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.79)	3.05 ↓ (3.24)	2.97 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro Carril Oeste
37.9%

Draw
30.7%

Independiente Rivadavia
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

28.3%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

27.8%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro Carril Oeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Independiente Rivadavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Rivadavia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferro Carril Oeste that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Rivadavia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Ferro Carril Oeste - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ferro Carril will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Independiente R will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jachfe L. (G) 4. Grana H. 2. Arena N. 6. Alvarado P. 3. Rodriguez M. 8. Campos M. 5. Vazquez K. A. 7. Moreyra G. 10. Mosca C. 9. Herrera J. 11. Nunez W.	1. Gagliardo M. (G) 4. Abecasis L. 2. Petrasso F. 6. Maidana M. 3. Elordi J. M. 8. Ham E. 5. Romero F. 7. Gonzalez M. 11. Tonetto D. 9. Ramis V. 10. Reali M.
Substitutes
13. Boolsen P. 19. Colombini I. 15. Di Lena F. 17. Erbes C. 14. Faggioli L. 16. Machado W. 12. Mino M. (G) 18. Palacio P. 20. Retamar K.	19. Aguirre J. 15. Ascacibar J. 14. Dionisio A. 18. Ilarregui F. 12. Masuero F. (G) 16. Ortale M. 20. Perales J. 17. Sanchez B. 13. Varela C.
Coaches
Cordon J. L.	Berti A.

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 3.

Recent matches Ferro Carril is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente Rivadavia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 23-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Ferro Carril won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.08.23	Deportivo Maipú - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0 ✺
30.07.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Villa Dálmine	3:0 ✺
22.07.23	Deportivo Madryn - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0 ✺
16.07.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Atlético de Rafaela	0:1 ✺
09.07.23	Estudiantes de Caseros - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLLW
- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.08.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
30.07.23	Racing de Córdoba - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0 ✺
22.07.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:1 ✺
15.07.23	Tristán Suárez - Independiente Rivadavia	0:3 ✺
09.07.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.04.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:1
07.03.22	Ferro Carril Oeste - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0
10.09.21	Ferro Carril Oeste - Independiente Rivadavia	6:0
02.05.21	Independiente Rivadavia - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2
15.02.20	Ferro Carril Oeste - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0
24.08.19	Independiente Rivadavia - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:2
24.03.19	Independiente Rivadavia - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1

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