Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 22

Date: 16 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Acita F. (Arg)


	Ferro Carril Oeste		Atlético de Rafaela

	1	X	2
	2	3.25	4
	2.05	3.2	3.3
	2.14	3.35	3.35
	2.14	3.17	3.81
	2.05	3	3.6
	2.1	3.28	3.62
	2.07	3.2	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.9)	3.21 ↓ (3.25)	3.6 ↓ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro Carril Oeste
44.9%

Draw
29.1%

Atlético de Rafaela
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

28.5%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

27.3%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro Carril Oeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferro Carril Oeste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Ferro Carril Oeste - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ferro Carril will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ferro Carril: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jachfe L. (G) 4. Grana H. 2. Arena N. 6. Alvarado P. 3. Rodriguez M. 8. Erbes C. 5. Machado W. 7. Palacio P. 10. Campos M. 9. Herrera J. 11. Diaz A.	1. Peano M. (G) 4. Olguin M. 2. Fontanini F. 6. Bravo A. 3. Risso G. 8. Portillo A. 5. Fissore M. 7. Lago I. 10. Valdivia M. 9. Bieler C. 11. Funez N.
Substitutes
13. Boolsen P. 14. Faggioli L. 16. Gonzalez G. 17. Keko 12. Mino M. (G) 18. Mosca C. 19. Nunez W. 20. Retamar K. 15. Vazquez K. A.	19. Albertengo G. 17. Arevalos N. 12. Bergia M. (G) 16. Delgadillo N. 18. Lamendola N. 20. Luciani V. 13. Telechea G. N. 14. Torres F. 15. Varela N.
Coaches
Cordon J. L.	Medran E.

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 4.

Ferro Carril is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Atlético de Rafaela is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Atlético de Rafaela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ferro Carril will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Ferro Carril won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.07.23	Estudiantes de Caseros - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2 ✺
30.06.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
24.06.23	Quilmes - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0 ✺
18.06.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Gimnasia Jujuy	3:0 ✺
04.06.23	Aldosivi - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLWW
- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.07.23	Atlético de Rafaela - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
01.07.23	Racing de Córdoba - Atlético de Rafaela	3:3 ✺
25.06.23	Atlético de Rafaela - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:0 ✺
17.06.23	Tristán Suárez - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
02.06.23	Chacarita Juniors - Atlético de Rafaela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.03.23	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2
22.05.22	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1
17.09.21	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:1
08.05.21	Ferro Carril Oeste - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0
24.09.18	Ferro Carril Oeste - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1
18.02.18	Ferro Carril Oeste - Atlético de Rafaela	0:2
Copa Argentina
02.06.16	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:2 penalties

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