Match Info

ARGENTINA: Primera B - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play


	Ferrocarril Midland		Excursionistas

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.9	3.2
	2.26	2.9	3.4	Watch
	2.23	2.85	3.67
	2.23	2.93	3.35	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.4
	2.27	2.99	3.4
	2.26	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.93)	2.9 ↓ (3.2)	3.4 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
41.2%

Draw
31.7%

Excursionistas
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

28.6%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.6%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferrocarril Midland's form might have worsened.

Excursionistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferrocarril Midland, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Ferrocarril Midland - Excursionistas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maldonado L. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Castorani P. 6. Gigli L. 3. Kruger J. 7. Rogoski M. 5. Violini N. 8. Frattini M. 11. Arias A. 9. Molina F. 10. Campana A. I.	1. Cajal N. (G) 4. Arciero R. 2. Igarzabal H. 6. Cahais M. 3. Schiavulli T. 8. Zarco H. 5. Peralta C. 7. Ferraro F. 10. Vera I. 11. Zoratti G. 9. Zarate J.
Substitutes
15. Aguilar D. 12. Avendano N. (G) 19. Calabria G. 14. Figueroa R. 17. Goyeneche J. 13. Meza F. 16. Nunez D. 20. Olivera E. 18. Vico L.	14. Abre F. 19. Alveira Garcilazo J. 18. Martinez M. 17. Mateo F. 15. Mosca N. 13. Parodi G. 20. Sosa F. 12. Vergara F. (G) 16. Villagra J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Rogoski M. 🟨,
22', Arciero R. ↓, Mateo F. ↑,
30', Vera I. 🟨,
38', Peralta C. 🟨,
40', 🟨,
45', Schiavulli T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Arias A. ↓, Olivera E. ↑,
60', Vera I. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
63', Rogoski M. ↓, Aguilar D. ↑,
63', Campana A. I. ↓, Calabria G. ↑,
68', Diaz Laharque L. 🟨,
73', 🟨,
75', Peralta C. ↓, Villagra J. ↑,
75', Ferraro F. ↓, Alveira Garcilazo J. ↑,
75', Zarate J. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
79', 🟨,
80', 🟨,
80', Gigli L. 🟨,
83', Frattini M. ↓, Figueroa R. ↑,
83', Molina F. ↓, Meza F. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferrocarril won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Ferrocarril will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Ferrocarril won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 28:15 (average 1.8:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Ferrocarril won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17:8 (average 1.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Copa Argentina
26.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Primera B
22.02.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Brown de Adrogué	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Argentino de Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	1:2 ✺
14.02.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Argentino de Quilmes	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Villa Dálmine - Ferrocarril Midland	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLWWT
- CA Excursionistas
Copa Argentina
27.02.25	Godoy Cruz - Excursionistas	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Primera B
21.02.25	Excursionistas - Acassuso	1:1 ✺
18.02.25	Brown de Adrogué - Excursionistas	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Excursionistas - Argentino de Merlo	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Argentino de Quilmes - Excursionistas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
17.11.24	Ferrocarril Midland - Excursionistas	0:1 penalties
08.11.24	Excursionistas - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1
12.10.24	Ferrocarril Midland - Excursionistas	3:1
24.05.24	Excursionistas - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1
Argentinian Primera C
19.07.23	Ferrocarril Midland - Excursionistas	0:0
15.03.23	Excursionistas - Ferrocarril Midland	1:4
09.07.22	Excursionistas - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0

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