Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Ferrocarril Midland		UAI Urquiza

	1	X	2
	1.75	2.95	4.6
	1.8	3.05	5	Watch
	1.71	3.21	5.19	Watch
	1.8	2.9	5
	1.73	3.16	5.31
	1.8	3.05	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.17)	3.05 ↑ (2.8)	5.02 ↑ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
51.8%

Draw
30%

UAI Urquiza
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

33.3%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

32.6%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferrocarril Midland's performance.

UAI Urquiza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UAI Urquiza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferrocarril Midland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UAI Urquiza than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UAI Urquiza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferrocarril Midland - UAI Urquiza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maldonado L. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Castorani P. 6. Gigli L. 3. Kruger J. 8. Frattini M. 5. Violini N. 7. Rogoski M. 11. Molina F. 10. Calabria G. 9. Vico L.	1. Bottini A. (G) 4. Menendez N. 2. Piccinetti S. 6. Rodriguez V. 3. Alaniz M. 7. Madero P. 5. Arcuri L. 11. Ismael Aguirre G. M. 10. Sciacqua S. 8. Ingratti J. 9. Brito M.
Substitutes
15. Aguilar D. 19. Arias A. 20. Campana A. I. 13. Cataldi F. 14. Figueroa R. 17. Goyeneche J. 16. Nunez D. 18. Olivera E.	20. Caceres P. 14. Ferrara J. 16. Galli F. 18. Naranjo W. 13. Natale F. 15. Rios N. 19. Scarcella R. 17. Vazquez A. 12. Viain I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', Calabria G. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Molina F. ⚽,
29', 2 - 0, Vico L. ⚽,
43', Ordonez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 3 - 0, Gigli L. ⚽,
56', Calabria G. ↓, Goyeneche J. ↑,
63', Madero P. ↓, Caceres P. ↑,
63', Sciacqua S. ↓, Vazquez A. ↑,
63', Brito M. ↓, Scarcella R. ↑,
63', Arcuri L. ↓, Rios N. ↑,
63', Gigli L. ↓, Cataldi F. ↑,
68', Ordonez C. 🟨,
72', Vico L. ↓, Campana A. I. ↑,
72', Frattini M. ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
73', Diaz Laharque L. ↓, Figueroa R. ↑,
78', Ismael Aguirre G. M. ↓, Galli F. ↑,
84', Alaniz M. 🟨,
90', Vazquez A. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 14).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Ferrocarril is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ferrocarril won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ferrocarril won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera B
22.03.25	Sportivo Italiano - Ferrocarril Midland	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Excursionistas	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Primera B
22.02.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Brown de Adrogué	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Argentino de Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLLW
- UAI Urquiza
Argentinian Primera B
22.03.25	UAI Urquiza - Excursionistas	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Acassuso - UAI Urquiza	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	UAI Urquiza - Brown de Adrogué	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Argentino de Merlo - UAI Urquiza	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	UAI Urquiza - Argentino de Quilmes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
21.09.24	UAI Urquiza - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1
04.05.24	Ferrocarril Midland - UAI Urquiza	5:1

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