The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
UAI Urquiza 19.6%
Draw 26.2%
Excursionistas 54.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.5%
29.2%
49.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.1%
28.7%
50.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UAI Urquiza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
Excursionistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for UAI Urquiza than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
UAI Urquiza - Excursionistas Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Viain I. (G) 5. Arcuri L. 10. Asprea T. 3. Caceres A. 2. Ciancio V. 7. Galli F. 8. Ibanez E. (C) 9. Marin A. 6. Monzon S. 11. Pesse V. 4. Rodriguez V.
1. Rodriguez N. (G) 3. Arango M. 8. Avalos A. 11. Chambi L. 7. Damiolini N. 10. Espeche A. 4. Fernandez M. 2. Ledesma D. 6. Pedrosa G. 9. Tellas G. 5. Zoratti G.
Substitutes
18. Albano V. 13. Gaitan Q. 15. Menendez N. 20. Mesa F. 16. Polizotto M. 14. Postel F. 17. Rocha T. 12. Rolon J. (G) 19. Scarcella R.
15. Alaniz M. 20. Blanco M. 12. Blengio M. (G) 17. Cardozo M. 19. Gimenez W. 16. Lopez M. 14. Paulides A. 13. Rodriguez G. 18. Scaramuzzi E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Monzon S. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Galli F. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Tellas G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Caceres A. 🟨,
51', Pedrosa G. 🟨,
58', Chambi L. ↓, Blanco M. ↑,
58', Damiolini N. ↓, Gimenez W. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Gimenez W. ⚽,
71', Avalos A. ↓, Paulides A. ↑,
71', Tellas G. ↓, Alaniz M. ↑,
89', 🟨,
90', 🟥,
90+1', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
Preview
A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 21st in the Relegation ~ Primera C (Apertura: ) and 1st in the Promotion ~ Primera Nacional).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UAI Urquiza won 1.
UAI Urquiza is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Excursionistas shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
In this matchup, Excursionistas is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, UAI Urquiza has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:6 (averaging 1:0.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for UAI Urquiza against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 4:3 goals (averaging 1.3:1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Excursionistas
38
22
8
8
59:30
29
74
21
UAI Urquiza
38
5
20
13
21:35
-14
35
Last Results with these Odds
Excursionistas - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 49.37%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.