Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Ferroviária		Anápolis

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.02	3.1	3.35	Watch
	2.04	3.25	3.39
	2.05	3.37	3.41	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.3
	2.04	3.13	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.18)	3.15 ↓ (3.34)	3.38 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
44.4%

Draw
28.8%

Anápolis
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

27.8%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

27.2%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Anápolis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Anápolis than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Ferroviária - Anápolis Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 36. Douglas Skilo 29. Eduardo Oliveira 13. Gustavo Medina (C) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 18. Rafael Carillho 5. Ricardinho 19. Thiago M. 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor	31. Victor Hugo (G) 27. Gustavo Henrique 41. Joao Borim 10. Juninho 13. Kauan Martins 6. Leonan 5. Lucas Mila 20. Luiz Felipe 7. Matheus Lagoa (C) 4. Rafael Costa 2. Rubinho
Substitutes
8. Alencar 38. Allison 17. Cantarelli M. 24. Carvalho I. (G) 20. David Souza 7. Fabio Soares 22. Felipe Rodrigues 15. Fernandinho 4. Guilherme Ferreira 33. Pedro Estevam 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan	11. Fernandinho 8. Gharib 15. Giva 9. Gonzalo Fornari 3. Helder 23. Igor Souza 17. Julio Cesar 30. Kaik Vicoza 25. Kauan Guilherme 18. Lucas Kallyel 12. Ravel Pelegrini (G)
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Evaristo Piza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Luiz Felipe ↓, Helder ↑,
49', Rafael Carillho 🟨,
58', Lucas Mila 🟨,
63', Rafael Carillho ↓, Fabio Soares ↑,
63', Douglas Skilo ↓, Alencar ↑,
63', Joao Borim ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
63', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Gonzalo Fornari ↑,
70', Kauan Martins 🟨,
72', Ricardinho ↓, David Souza ↑,
73', Juninho ↓, Igor Souza ↑,
73', Lucas Mila ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Vitor Barreto ⚽,
80', Albano 🟨,
82', Albano ↓, Raoni ↑,
83', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Felipe Rodrigues ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 18).

Ferroviária is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Anápolis's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ferroviária may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ferroviária might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.57%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
30.04.26	Ferroviária - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.26	Ferroviária - Guarani	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.04.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
20.04.26	Floresta - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
15.04.26	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTWTW
- Anápolis FC
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
29.04.26	Anápolis - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.26	Anápolis - Figueirense	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Ypiranga - Anápolis	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
15.04.26	Gama - Anápolis	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
12.04.26	Anápolis - Internacional de Limeira	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
20.08.23	Anápolis - Ferroviária	0:1
12.08.23	Ferroviária - Anápolis	1:0

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