Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 4

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)


	Ferroviária		Guarani

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.85	2.88	1.8
	5.14	2.96	1.94
	5.04	2.8	1.95	Watch
	5	2.9	1.7
	4.98	2.88	1.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5 ↑ (2.94)	2.88 ↓ (3.02)	1.84 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
18.3%

Draw
31.8%

Guarani
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

29.8%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferroviária's form might have worsened.

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guarani's recent form is better than expected.

Ferroviária - Guarani Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 8. Alencar 38. Allison 20. David Souza 37. Gabriel Ticianelli 4. Guilherme Ferreira (C) 27. Nicolas Silva 33. Pedro Estevam 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 23. Schilling Arthur	1. Caique Franca (G) 6. Emerson Barbosa 21. Guilherme Cachoeira 11. Herbert 18. Isaque 10. Joao Paulo 4. Jonathan Costa 9. Lucca 5. Rafael Donato (C) 8. Willian Farias 2. Ynaia
Substitutes
32. Abner 17. Cantarelli M. 24. Carvalho I. (G) 21. Ferreira Januario F. G. 39. Gadu 14. Jhonatan Garcia 42. Joao Victor 41. Ortega M. 16. Vinicius Meireles 25. Vinni Faria	15. Carlos Eduardo 17. Dentinho 20. Diego Torres 7. Guilherme Parede 23. Kaua Jesus 14. Kewen 19. Maranhao 12. Mateus Claus (G) 3. Mauricio Antonio 22. Mirandinha 16. Renan Castro 13. Yan Henrique
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Sizenando E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Allison ⚽,
23', Willian Farias 🟨,
25', 1 - 1, Guilherme Cachoeira ⚽,
29', Lucca ↓, Kewen ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rafael Donato ↓, Mauricio Antonio ↑,
54', Schilling Arthur 🟨,
61', Alencar ↓, Vinicius Meireles ↑,
68', Pedro Estevam ↓, Vinni Faria ↑,
68', Schilling Arthur ↓, Jonathan ↑,
70', Herbert ↓, Guilherme Parede ↑,
70', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Mirandinha ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Allison ⚽,
75', Allison 🟨,
76', Joao Paulo ↓, Diego Torres ↑,
77', Mirandinha 🟨,
81', David Souza ↓, Gadu ↑,
81', Allison ↓, Cantarelli M. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Guilherme Parede ⚽,
89', Ynaia 🟨,
90+4', Mauricio Antonio 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 10).

Ferroviária is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guarani may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 30.7%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Guarani - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.47%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.04.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
20.04.26	Floresta - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
15.04.26	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
11.04.26	Ferroviária - Botafogo PB	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
08.04.26	Sertãozinho - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTWLW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.26	Guarani - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Guarani - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Maranhão - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Castanhal - Guarani	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Palmeiras - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.23	Ferroviária - Guarani	1:0
12.03.22	Guarani - Ferroviária	2:1
20.04.21	Ferroviária - Guarani	1:2

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