Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 14

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ituano		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	2.85	3.10
	2.25	2.88	3.15	Watch
	2.31	2.97	3.52
	2.3	2.97	3.35	Watch
	2.25	2.85	3.4
	2.26	3.14	3.25
	2.23	2.8	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (1.96)	2.92 ↓ (3.05)	3.27 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
40.6%

Draw
31.4%

Ferroviária
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

29.6%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

30.3%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ituano's form might have worsened.

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ituano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Ituano - Ferroviária Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (G) 9. Gabriel Razera 5. Gabriel William 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 3. Leo Coltro 2. Lucas Mota 4. Matheus Mancini 8. Nelsinho 11. Neto Berola 7. Thassio 6. Tiaguinho	31. Denis Junior (C) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 9. Denilson Chaves 36. Douglas Skilo 29. Eduardo Oliveira 22. Felipe Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 5. Ricardinho 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
17. Alason Carioca 19. Bruno Mezenga 20. Felipe Muranga 16. Guilherme Dal Pian 14. Leandro Sergipe 23. Leo Passos 18. Lipe Gadol 21. Lucas Stefanello 12. Lucas Wingert (G) 15. Martha 13. Victor Reis 22. Vini Oliveira	38. Allison 17. Cantarelli M. 7. Fau 15. Fernandinho 34. Gustavo Jundi (G) 14. Jhonatan Garcia 2. Lucas Rodrigues 33. Pedro Estevam 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M.
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Alencar 🟨,
28', Neto Berola 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Gabriel Razera ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Albano ⚽,
57', Thassio ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
57', Nelsinho ↓, Lucas Stefanello ↑,
61', Leo Coltro 🟨,
63', Albano 🟨,
67', Neto Berola 🟥,
67', Douglas Skilo ↓, Fau ↑,
70', Tiaguinho 🟨,
72', Gabriel William ↓, Martha ↑,
74', 0 - 2, Denilson Chaves ⚽,
76', 1 - 2, Guilherme Xavier ⚽,
78', Vitor Barreto ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
78', Denilson Chaves ↓, Schilling Arthur ↑,
84', Alencar ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
84', Albano ↓, Raoni ↑,
86', 1 - 3, Fau ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 1.

Ituano is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ferroviária has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ferroviária may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ituano could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:24. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.6:1.4).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
04.07.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ituano	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ituano - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Ituano - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Itabaiana - Ituano	2:2 ✺
30.05.26	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTTTL
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
04.07.26	Ferroviária - Caxias	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	Itabaiana - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Ferroviária - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Ferroviária - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
30.04.26	Ferroviária - Ituano	1:1
23.04.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	0:1
17.01.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	1:1
19.03.25	Ituano - Ferroviária	4:1 penalties
15.03.25	Ferroviária - Ituano	2:0
22.01.25	Ferroviária - Ituano	3:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
26.02.22	Ituano - Ferroviária	3:1

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