Match Info

Challenge League - Round 9

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Fgura United		Mtarfa

	1	X	2
	1.12	6.9	13.5	Watch
	1.11	8.57	11.71
	1.14	7.96	11.2	Watch
	1.11	8	15
	1.18	6.91	10.9
	1.15	6.33	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↑ (1.03)	7.45 ↓ (14)	11.97 ↓ (41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fgura United
80.2%

Draw
12.2%

Mtarfa
7.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91%

6.7%

2.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fgura United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fgura United's form might have worsened.

Mtarfa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mtarfa's recent form is better than expected.

Fgura United - Mtarfa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Akande T. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Caruana D. ⚽,
40', 3 - 0, Akande T. ⚽,
2nd Half (5 - 0)
62', 4 - 0, ⚽,
67', 5 - 0, ⚽,
85', 6 - 0, ⚽,
86', 7 - 0, ⚽,
89', 8 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 16 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

Fgura has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mtarfa's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fgura may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fgura is the obvious favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Fgura won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Fgura won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fgura United
Maltese Challenge League
10.12.25	Fgura United - Balzan	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Fgura United	2:3 ✺
23.11.25	Fgura United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:3 ✺
02.11.25	St. Andrews - Fgura United	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Fgura United - Melita	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLWL
- Mtarfa FC
Maltese Challenge League
11.12.25	Mtarfa - Żebbuġ Rangers	4:1 ✺
30.11.25	Balzan - Mtarfa	4:0 ✺
22.11.25	Mtarfa - Vittoriosa Stars	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Mtarfa	8:2 ✺
25.10.25	Mtarfa - St. Andrews	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
12.04.25	Mtarfa - Fgura United	3:2
22.09.24	Mtarfa - Fgura United	1:2
12.02.23	Fgura United - Mtarfa	1:1
01.11.22	Mtarfa - Fgura United	0:2

Fgura United - Mtarfa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide