Match Info

FA Trophy - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Fgura United		Santa Lucia

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.55	2.78	Watch
	1.81	4.15	3.41	Watch
	1.67	3.8	3.9
	1.77	3.74	3.71
	1.66	3.8	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.56)	3.81 ↓ (4.1)	3.51 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fgura United
50.3%

Draw
23.8%

Santa Lucia
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

22.1%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

21.3%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fgura United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fgura United's form might have worsened.

Santa Lucia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Lucia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fgura United than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fgura United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Lucia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Fgura United - Santa Lucia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fgura will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Santa Lucia will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Santa Lucia (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Lucia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Adolphus M. ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, Rahman A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
80', 2 - 1, Marshall A. N. (Own goal),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Fgura is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fgura won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 3.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fgura won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 3.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fgura United
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Żurrieq - Fgura United	1:4 ✺
14.12.25	Fgura United - Mtarfa	8:0 ✺
10.12.25	Fgura United - Balzan	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Fgura United	2:3 ✺
23.11.25	Fgura United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWL
- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Santa Lucia - Balzan	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Santa Lucia	0:2 ✺
09.12.25	Żurrieq - Santa Lucia	4:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
06.12.25	Sirens - Santa Lucia	1:2 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
29.11.25	Santa Lucia - Swieqi United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
20.09.25	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:0
25.01.25	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	5:1

Fgura United - Santa Lucia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide