Match Info

Challenge League - Round 4

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Fgura United		Santa Lucia

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.25	2.50
	2.35	3.35	2.45	Watch
	2.5	3.05	2.74	Watch
	2.15	3.35	2.65
	2.25	3.55	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.39)	3.31 ↓ (3.37)	2.63 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fgura United
38.6%

Draw
27.2%

Santa Lucia
34.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.2%

26.4%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fgura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Fgura United - Santa Lucia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90', Micallef M. 🟥,

Preview

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Fgura has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:2 (averaging 3:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fgura against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 9:2 goals (averaging 3:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Fgura	5	3	2	0	10:2	8	11
11	Santa Lucia	5	0	5	0	3:3	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Santa Lucia - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 36.44%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fgura United
Maltese Challenge League
10.10.26	Victoria Hotspurs - Fgura United	0:3 ✺
19.09.26	Fgura United - Sirens	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Żebbuġ Rangers - Fgura United	0:4 ✺
19.04.26	Swieqi United - Fgura United	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Melita - Fgura United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WTWTW
- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
11.10.26	Santa Lucia - Żurrieq	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	St. Andrews - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Santa Lucia - Vittoriosa Stars	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Mtarfa - Santa Lucia	7:0 ✺
12.04.26	Santa Lucia - Żurrieq	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:1
Maltese Challenge League
20.09.25	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:0
25.01.25	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	5:1

Fgura United - Santa Lucia