Match Info

Challenge League - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Swieqi United		Fgura United

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.55	5.15	Watch
	1.53	4.98	3.84
	1.38	4.86	6.08	Watch
	1.44	4.4	4.8
	1.49	4.75	4.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.43)	4.71 ↑ (4.4)	4.88 ↓ (5.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swieqi United
62.2%

Draw
19.2%

Fgura United
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

20.8%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

20.1%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swieqi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Fgura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swieqi United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fgura United than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Swieqi United - Fgura United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Fenech P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
70', 1 - 1, Formosa K. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swieqi United won 3.

Swieqi United is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Fgura has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Swieqi United is the clear favorite.

We predict that Swieqi United will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Swieqi United won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Swieqi United won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fgura	2	1	1	0	5:1	4	4
5	Swieqi	2	1	1	0	6:5	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swieqi United
Maltese Challenge League
11.04.26	St. Andrews - Swieqi United	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Swieqi United - Melita	Melita Awarded ✺
14.03.26	Balzan - Swieqi United	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Swieqi United - Sirens	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 T?WTW
- Fgura United
Maltese Challenge League
11.04.26	Melita - Fgura United	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Fgura United - Pietà Hotspurs	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Sirens - Fgura United	3:2 ✺
10.03.26	Fgura United - Balzan	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Fgura United - St. Andrews	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
15.02.26	Swieqi United - Fgura United	2:1
20.10.24	Swieqi United - Fgura United	0:1
20.01.24	Fgura United - Swieqi United	1:3
21.01.23	Swieqi United - Fgura United	2:2
Maltese FA Trophy
17.11.22	Swieqi United - Fgura United	3:0
Maltese Challenge League
02.10.22	Swieqi United - Fgura United	1:1
11.09.21	Swieqi United - Fgura United	1:0

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