Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Orlando Scarpelli (Florianópolis)


	Figueirense		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.24	3.15	3.16
	2.25	3.12	3.29	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.4
	2.09	3.05	3.66
	1.96	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.84)	3.08 ↓ (3.18)	3.42 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Figueirense
43.3%

Draw
29.8%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

28.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

29.2%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Figueirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Figueirense's form might have worsened.

Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Figueirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Náutico Marcílio Dias, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Figueirense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fabricio Santana (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 5. Breno 98. Dudu Sampaio 11. Felipe Augusto 27. Felipe Santiago 30. Jean Mangabeira 25. Jhonnathan 99. Kayke 2. Leo Maia 66. Wesley Costa	1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 10. Cesinha 8. Felipe Baiano 7. Guilherme Kante 6. Jonathan 11. Jose Carlos 4. Luan 9. Lucas Batatinha 3. Marcelo Sousa 5. Reginaldo (C) 2. Victor Guilherme
Substitutes
18. da Costa M. 22. Ezequiel 8. Flavio 33. Freitas Barreto P. C. 91. Hyuri 52. Igo Gabriel (G) 70. Igor Bolt 17. Pablo 79. Paje 28. Rafinha Potiguar 36. Saraiva P.	12. Erivelton (G) 18. Evandro 19. Felipe Cruz 23. Freitas J. 16. Goncalves C. 13. Joao Vitor 15. Kaique Maciel 20. Miguel Silva 22. Ranghetti L. 17. Roldan 21. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Lucas Batatinha 🟨,
21', Marcelo Sousa 🟨,
32', Felipe Baiano 🟨,
33', Breno 🟨,
34', Victor Guilherme 🟨,
36', Breno 🟨,
45', Jean Mangabeira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Victor Guilherme ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
46', Marcelo Sousa ↓, Evandro ↑,
46', Felipe Baiano ↓, Roldan ↑,
46', Kayke ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
46', Jean Mangabeira ↓, Rafinha Potiguar ↑,
58', Lucas Batatinha ↓, Kaique Maciel ↑,
63', Jonathan 🟨,
66', Felipe Augusto ↓, da Costa M. ↑,
76', Dudu Sampaio ↓, Paje ↑,
77', Jonathan ↓, Felipe Cruz ↑,
84', Wesley Costa ↓, Hyuri ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Cesinha ⚽,
90+4', Leo Maia 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Figueirense won 2.

Recent form of Figueirense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marcílio Dias is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Figueirense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Figueirense won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Figueirense won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Figueirense
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0 ✺
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Figueirense - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
22.01.26	Concórdia - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLTL
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
22.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:0
10.01.26	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
09.11.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	2:1
02.11.25	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	3:0
04.10.25	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:2
15.09.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.02.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	2:1

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