Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 9 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)


	Náutico Marcílio Dias		Carlos Renaux

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	3.86	5.91
	1.66	3.5	5.53	Watch
	1.53	3.5	5.5
	1.58	3.52	6.04
	1.61	3.4	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.57)	3.56 ↑ (3.51)	5.66 ↑ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Marcílio Dias
58%

Draw
25.8%

Carlos Renaux
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

25.9%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

26.1%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

The chances for Carlos Renaux have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Renaux than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marcílio Dias (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 10. Cesinha 5. Claudinho 8. Felipe Baiano 7. Guilherme Kante 6. Jonathan 11. Jose Carlos 4. Luan 9. Lucas Batatinha 3. Marcelo Sousa 2. Victor Guilherme	1. Edson (G) 2. Arouca 9. Erverson 11. Gustavo Sobral Alves Pereira L. 10. Nunez P. 8. Ruan 3. Tiago Santana (C) 5. Vitor Carre 4. Welligton Rocha 7. Welves 6. Yago Zamora
Substitutes
12. Erivelton (G) 18. Evandro 19. Felipe Cruz 16. Goncalves C. 13. Joao Vitor 23. Joao Vitor (G) 15. Kaique Maciel 20. Miguel Silva 22. Ranghetti L. 14. Reginaldo 17. Roldan 21. Vitinho	19. Cassio 18. Deivid 22. Eduardo Lopes (G) 17. Gabriel Mello 16. Gerson 23. Guilherme Henrique 15. Keven 14. Rafael Franco 13. RONDINELE J. D. T. G. C. 20. Tavares 21. Thiago Tinoco 12. Thierry (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Jose Carlos ⚽,
11', 🟨,
25', Arouca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Marcelo Sousa ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
46', Ruan ↓, Keven ↑,
46', Arouca ↓, Gabriel Mello ↑,
60', Lucas Batatinha ↓, Felipe Cruz ↑,
60', Victor Guilherme ↓, Kaique Maciel ↑,
63', Welves ↓, Thiago Tinoco ↑,
63', Matheus Campos ↓, Cassio ↑,
64', Claudinho 🟨,
66', Gustavo Sobral Alves Pereira L. 🟨,
66', Jose Carlos 🟨,
73', Jose Carlos ↓, Miguel Silva ↑,
74', Tiago Santana ↓, Gerson ↑,
80', Gerson 🟥,
81', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
86', Felipe Baiano ↓, Evandro ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Thiago Tinoco ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Marcílio Dias is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marcílio Dias won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
22.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
15.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLLL
- CA Carlos Renaux
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Avaí - Carlos Renaux	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4

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