Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Orlando Scarpelli (Florianópolis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, N Sports, Sky+, Vivo Play


	Figueirense		Joinville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.48	3.67	7.36
	1.65	3.47	5.75	Watch
	1.53	3.4	6
	1.56	3.46	6.61
	1.47	3.6	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.78)	3.52 ↑ (3.32)	6.54 ↑ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Figueirense
59.8%

Draw
26.1%

Joinville
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.4%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.3%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Figueirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Figueirense's performance.

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Joinville might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Figueirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joinville could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Figueirense - Joinville Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fabricio Santana (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 3. Douglas Bacelar 11. Felipe Augusto 70. Igor Bolt 30. Jean Mangabeira 25. Jhonnathan 99. Kayke 2. Leo Maia 28. Rafinha Potiguar 66. Wesley Costa	1. Thiago (G) 9. Da Silva 8. Felipe Para 10. Gabriel Terra 3. Gutieri 11. Iago Dias 7. Klock J. 2. Lucas Lopes 6. Natanael 4. Victor Oliveira 5. Yalle
Substitutes
4. Anderson Conceicao 5. Breno 98. Dudu Sampaio 22. Ezequiel 27. Felipe Santiago 8. Flavio 91. Hyuri 52. Igo Gabriel (G) 10. Jorginho 20. Oliveira W. 17. Pablo 36. Saraiva P.	15. Alyson 25. Andrey 23. Brendon 16. Erick Crispim 20. Fernando Neto 22. Kaka 17. Keke 19. Luizinho 18. Rickson 76. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 14. Toty 21. Ytalo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Kayke ⚽,
32', Gabriel Terra 🟨,
38', Arthur Henrique 🟨,
39', Yalle 🟨,
40', Rafinha Potiguar 🟨,
41', Douglas Bacelar ↓, Felipe Santiago ↑,
45+2', Leo Maia 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rafinha Potiguar ↓, Breno ↑,
51', Natanael ↓, Luizinho ↑,
56', Gutieri 🟨,
59', Iago Dias ↓, Keke ↑,
61', Gabriel Terra ↓, Fernando Neto ↑,
61', Felipe Augusto ↓, Oliveira W. ↑,
64', Klock J. 🟥,
67', 🟨,
74', Igor Bolt ↓, Hyuri ↑,
75', Kayke ↓, Dudu Sampaio ↑,
76', 🟨,
77', Lucas Lopes ↓, Kaka ↑,
77', Da Silva ↓, Ytalo ↑,
78', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Figueirense won 3.

Each of the two teams has experienced multiple losses lately.

Joinville may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Figueirense is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Figueirense won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:19. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Figueirense won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Figueirense
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Figueirense - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
22.01.26	Concórdia - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Figueirense - Avaí	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Brusque - Figueirense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Catarina - Joinville	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.01.26	Joinville - Figueirense	2:3
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
23.11.25	Figueirense - Joinville	2:1
16.11.25	Joinville - Figueirense	1:4
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
11.01.25	Joinville - Figueirense	0:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
05.10.24	Joinville - Figueirense	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
24.01.24	Figueirense - Joinville	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
30.08.23	Joinville - Figueirense	1:3

Figueirense - Joinville: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide