Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Floresta		Botafogo PB

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	2.80	3.20
	2.25	2.88	3.15	Watch
	2.39	3.13	3.14
	2.19	3.02	3.54	Watch
	2.30	2.95	3.10
	2.29	2.98	3.38	Watch
	2.20	2.85	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.55)	2.94 ↑ (2.8)	3.24 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
40.6%

Draw
31.1%

Botafogo PB
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

32.1%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

30.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Floresta's performance.

Botafogo PB has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (+3%)

Floresta - Botafogo PB Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dheimison (C) 2. Cedric 6. Diego Matos 13. Garraty 23. Islan 5. Jhony Douglas 4. Joao Victor 17. Nonato 21. Rafa Marcos 11. Rafinha 16. Zulu	27. Luiz Daniel (G) 77. Bastos R. 2. Diogo Mateus 7. Dudu Hatamoto 31. Gustavo 14. Igor Morais 5. Jhonata Varela 10. Nene (C) 6. Patric Calmon 20. Thallyson 3. Yan Souto
Substitutes
7. Baianinho 31. Buga 8. Danrley 30. Eduardo 15. Eliandro 28. Guilherme Borges 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 10. Matheusinho 19. Matheus Lima 26. Thailor 20. Thalisson 22. Tiepo (G)	16. Bull 25. Caio Garcia 11. Diego Tavares 12. Erick 33. Julio Vaz 15. Kayon 21. Leandro Mathias (G) 22. Leo Pereira 28. Lucas Candido 35. Octavio 4. Saimon

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Garraty ⚽,
45', Garraty 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Thallyson ↓, Kayon ↑,
46', Garraty ↓, Thalisson ↑,
57', Patric Calmon ↓, Bull ↑,
57', Diogo Mateus ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
58', Rafinha ↓, Matheus Lima ↑,
72', Jhony Douglas ↓, Danrley ↑,
79', Gustavo ↓, Caio Garcia ↑,
87', Dudu Hatamoto ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
90', Rafa Marcos 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Bastos R. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 3rd and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 3.

In recent outings, Floresta has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Botafogo PB is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Floresta holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Floresta has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:10 (averaging 1.2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Floresta against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 1:4 goals (averaging 0.3:1.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo PB - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.67%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
26.09.26	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Floresta - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TLWLW
- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Serie C
26.09.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1
25.04.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:2
11.05.25	Botafogo PB - Floresta	2:3
21.04.24	Floresta - Botafogo PB	1:2
04.06.23	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:1
09.07.22	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:1
20.08.21	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:2

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