Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 19

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Floresta		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.83	3.00	4.10
	1.84	3.05	4.25	Watch
	1.93	3.19	4.43
	1.93	3.18	4.2	Watch
	1.83	3.25	4.20
	1.89	3.25	4.30	Watch
	1.83	3.00	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.9)	3.13 ↑ (3.05)	4.24 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
49.1%

Draw
29.3%

Ituano
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

29.5%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28.4%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Floresta - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Floresta will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Floresta: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dheimison (C) 31. Buga 29. Caique 30. Eduardo 15. Eliandro 13. Garraty 23. Islan 4. Joao Victor 19. Matheus Lima 17. Nonato 11. Rafinha	1. Saulo (G) 11. Alason Carioca 9. Gabriel Razera 4. Gabriel William 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 3. Leandro Sergipe 5. Leo Souza 2. Lucas Mota 8. Richard 7. Vini Oliveira
Substitutes
2. Cedric 8. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 25. Diogo Mourao 28. Guilherme Borges 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 27. Marco Antonio 10. Matheusinho 7. Matheus Martins 26. Thailor 20. Thalisson 22. Tiepo (G)	19. Bruno Mezenga 20. Fernando Canesin 16. Leo Coltro 22. Lipe Gadol 21. Lucas Stefanello 12. Lucas Wingert (G) 15. Martha 14. Matheus Mancini 18. Nelsinho 13. Thassio 17. Victor Reis
Coaches
Leston Junior	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Buga ↓, Danrley ↑,
27', Joao Victor 🟨,
31', Alason Carioca ↓, Victor Reis ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Rafinha ⚽,
41', Richard 🟨,
45+1', Matheus Lima 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Matheus Lima ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
65', Gabriel Razera ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
66', Vini Oliveira ↓, Lucas Stefanello ↑,
66', Leo Souza ↓, Thassio ↑,
67', 🟨,
72', Garraty ↓, Thalisson ↑,
72', Eliandro ↓, Cedric ↑,
73', Nonato ↓, Guilherme Borges ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Matheus Martins (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In recent matches, Floresta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ituano is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Floresta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Floresta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 3.9 are the expected chance of winning is 23.09%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
22.08.26	Volta Redonda - Floresta	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Floresta - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
09.08.26	Ypiranga - Floresta	4:1 ✺
27.07.26	Floresta - Maringá	1:1 ✺
11.07.26	Caxias - Floresta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWLTT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
22.08.26	Ituano - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Volta Redonda - Ituano	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Ituano - Barra Santa Catarina	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Brusque - Ituano	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
25.05.25	Ituano - Floresta	0:0

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