Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 3

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Santa Cruz Recife		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	2.85	5.25
	1.78	2.82	4.9	Watch
	1.87	2.98	5
	1.77	2.98	5.89
	1.85	2.95	4.75
	1.86	2.97	5.16	Watch
	1.79	2.8	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.92)	2.91 ↑ (2.88)	5.12 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
50.6%

Draw
31.5%

Floresta
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

31.2%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

33.2%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 28. Eron 3. Eurico 37. Everaldo 32. Joao Pedro 13. Matheus Vinicius 5. Pedro Favela 19. Renato 26. Silva 2. Thiago Ennes 4. William Alves (C)	12. Dheimison (C) 7. Baianinho 29. Caique 15. Eliandro 13. Garraty 23. Islan 4. Joao Victor 18. Natan Costa 17. Nonato 11. Rafinha 16. Zulu
Substitutes
6. Alex Ruan 29. Alex Sandro 8. Arilson 10. Cassiano 27. Edson Miranda 7. Fabinho 9. Matheus Cadorini 11. Matheus Melo 20. Patrick Allan 12. Rokenedy (G) 33. Vini Hora 18. Willian Junior	2. Cedric 8. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 30. Eduardo 28. Guilherme Borges 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 5. Jhony Douglas 19. Matheus Lima 21. Rafa Marcos 20. Thalisson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Renato ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Eliandro ↓, Cedric ↑,
61', Rafinha ↓, Rafa Marcos ↑,
66', Everaldo ↓, Willian Junior ↑,
66', Eron ↓, Matheus Cadorini ↑,
72', Renato ↓, Alex Ruan ↑,
72', Joao Pedro ↓, Cassiano ↑,
72', Baianinho ↓, Matheus Lima ↑,
73', Nonato ↓, Jhony Douglas ↑,
78', Garraty ↓, Thalisson ↑,
82', Silva ↓, Arilson ↑,

Preview

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Santa Cruz carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Santa Cruz has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:5 (averaging 1.5:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Santa Cruz against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1.5:2 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Anápolis - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Caxias	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWTWL
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Floresta - Ituano	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Volta Redonda - Floresta	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Floresta - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
11.04.26	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.10.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	3:4 penalties
Brazilian Serie C
07.08.21	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	0:2
05.06.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	0:0

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