Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 4

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Floresta		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	2.60	2.90
	2.45	2.58	3	Watch
	2.65	2.77	3.07
	2.65	2.75	3.05
	2.55	2.5	3
	2.51	2.66	2.99	Watch
	2.48	2.6	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.45)	2.64 ↑ (2.63)	3 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
35.5%

Draw
34.3%

Santa Cruz Recife
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

34.2%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

35.7%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dheimison (C) 29. Caique 2. Cedric 13. Garraty 23. Islan 4. Joao Victor 18. Natan Costa 17. Nonato 21. Rafa Marcos 11. Rafinha 16. Zulu	1. Thiago Coelho (G) 27. Edson Miranda 28. Eron 37. Everaldo 32. Joao Pedro 13. Matheus Vinicius 5. Pedro Favela 19. Renato 26. Silva 2. Thiago Ennes 4. William Alves (C)
Substitutes
7. Baianinho 8. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 30. Eduardo 15. Eliandro 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 5. Jhony Douglas 10. Matheusinho 19. Matheus Lima 26. Thailor 20. Thalisson 22. Tiepo (G)	6. Alex Ruan 15. Andrey 8. Arilson 10. Cassiano 14. Denis 7. Fabinho 29. Leo Costa 11. Matheus Melo 12. Rokenedy (G) 23. Tiago Marques 33. Vini Hora 18. Willian Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Rafinha ⚽,
39', Jhony Douglas 🟨,
42', Rafinha 🟨,
45', Matheus Vinicius 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Vini Hora ↑,
46', Thiago Ennes ↓, Alex Ruan ↑,
58', Pedro Favela 🟨,
59', Matheus Vinicius ↓, Matheus Melo ↑,
62', Dheimison 🟨,
64', Garraty ↓, Thalisson ↑,
64', Caique ↓, Diego Matos ↑,
67', Silva ↓, Willian Junior ↑,
75', Rafinha ↓, Matheus Lima ↑,
80', Rafa Marcos ↓, Danrley ↑,
81', Everaldo ↓, Tiago Marques ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Renato ⚽,
90+1', Baianinho 🟨,
90+4', Matheus Lima 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
90+10', Alex Ruan 🟥,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 3rd and 1st in the Promotion ~ Serie B).

Floresta has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Santa Cruz is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Floresta has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:7 (averaging 1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Floresta against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.5:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Floresta - Ituano	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Volta Redonda - Floresta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LWLWW
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Anápolis - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Caxias	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
20.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	1:0
11.04.26	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.10.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	3:4 penalties
Brazilian Serie C
07.08.21	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	0:2
05.06.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	0:0

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