Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 6

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Correia B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Fluminense		Maricá

	1	X	2
	1.16	6.5	15.5
	1.14	7.64	24.48
	1.18	6.02	17.35
	1.15	6	15
	1.16	6.73	16.8
	1.15	7	20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.35)	6.65 ↑ (4.27)	18.19 ↑ (8.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
80.8%

Draw
14.1%

Maricá
5.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

21.5%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

20.5%

9.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.

Maricá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Maricá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maricá than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Fluminense - Maricá Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Fluminense (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 3. Jemmes 13. Guilherme Arana 94. Otavio 8. Martinelli (C) 90. Serna K. 10. PH Ganso 11. Savarino J. 9. John Kennedy	1. Yuri Duarte (G) 2. Magno Nunes 3. Victor Pereira 4. Sandro Silva 6. Marcelinho 7. Caio Vitor 5. Vinicius Matheus 8. Almir Silva 11. Rafael Lucas 9. Pablo Thomaz (C) 10. Vitinho
Substitutes
32. Acosta L. 5. Bernal F. 17. Canobbio A. 22. Freytes J. 35. Hercules 21. Igor Rabello 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 15. Matheus Reis 30. Moreno S. 6. Rene 2. Samuel Xavier 7. Soteldo Y.	21. Alex Azeredo 14. Bernardo 16. Brenno 23. Cayke 15. Fernandes L. B. 12. Gerson Dida (G) 25. Julio Cesar (G) 17. Mendes 20. Octavio Manteca 19. Oliver 22. Valdenilson 18. Wellington
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Reinaldo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Vinicius Matheus 🟨,
45+2', Victor Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martinelli ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
46', John Kennedy ↓, Hercules ↑,
57', Vitinho ↓, Oliver ↑,
63', Otavio 🟨,
67', Otavio ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
67', Savarino J. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Serna K. ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
73', Vinicius Matheus ↓, Mendes ↑,
73', Rafael Lucas ↓, Alex Azeredo ↑,
77', Serna K. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
77', Caio Vitor ↓, Octavio Manteca ↑,
78', Almir Silva ↓, Bernardo ↑,

Preview

Fluminense has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Maricá is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Maricá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fluminense is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fluminense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Including home match between the teams, Fluminense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Bahia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TWWWW
- Maricá FC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
02.02.26	Maricá - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
27.01.26	Maricá - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:1 ✺
21.01.26	Maricá - Bangu	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	0:1 ✺
15.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Maricá	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
18.01.25	Fluminense - Maricá	1:1

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