Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.55	Watch
	2.13	3.3	3.89
	2.19	3.24	3.56
	2.1	3.1	3.5
	2.18	3.5	3.49	Watch
	2.16	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.27)	3.3 ↑ (3.11)	3.57 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
44.7%

Draw
28.7%

Fluminense
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

30.3%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

29.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Bahia - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fluminense (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fluminense (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 26. Nicolas Acevedo 6. Jean Lucas 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 16. Erick Pulga	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 3. Jemmes 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 16. Nonato 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 99. John Kennedy
Substitutes
19. Caio Alexandre 89. Dell 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 4. Kanu 99. Olivera C. 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M.	5. Bernal F. 23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 45. Lima 15. Matheus Reis 30. Moreno S. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 98. Vitor Eudes (G) 34. Wesley Nata
Coaches
Mucke R.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, John Kennedy ⚽, Nonato (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Nonato 🟨,
60', Nonato ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
62', Jean Lucas ↓, Erick ↑,
62', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
62', Erick Pulga ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
67', Jemmes 🟨,
69', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Olivera C. ⚽, Sanabria M. (A),
80', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
80', Serna K. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
81', Willian Jose ↓, Dell ↑,
89', Dell 🟥,
89', Rene ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
90', Martinelli ↓, Lima ↑,
90', Lima 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.

Bahia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Fluminense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bahia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Michel Araujo (Red Card) Ruan Pablo (Inactive) Sanabria M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Cano G. (Inactive) Hercules (Inactive) Soteldo Y. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Bahia: Jean Lucas (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.39%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.02.26	Bahia - Porto SC	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
25.01.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:1 ✺
20.01.26	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	5:1 ✺
17.01.26	Bahia - Galícia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Boavista - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0
28.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	3:3
04.08.24	Fluminense - Bahia	1:0
16.04.24	Bahia - Fluminense	2:1
31.10.23	Bahia - Fluminense	1:0

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