Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	6	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.9
	1.59	4	6.06
	1.65	3.89	5.47
	1.57	3.8	5
	1.6	4.16	6.09	Watch
	1.6	4	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.79)	3.99 ↑ (3.36)	5.75 ↑ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
59.8%

Draw
23.8%

Grêmio
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

27.8%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

28.8%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Fluminense - Grêmio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 3. Jemmes 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 8. Martinelli 16. Nonato 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 99. John Kennedy	1. Weverton (G) 18. Joao Pedro 53. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 29. Arthur Melo (C) 21. Tete 8. Edenilson 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
5. Bernal F. 9. Everaldo 23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 45. Lima 30. Moreno S. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 11. Savarino J. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 38. Caio Paulista 10. Cristaldo F. 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha 19. Noriega E. 7. Pavon C. 39. Tiago 44. Viery 88. Willian
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Nonato 🟨,
45+2', Dodi 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Marcos Rocha ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Nonato ⚽,
60', 2 - 0, Acosta L. ⚽, Rene (A),
60', Amuzu F. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
61', Dodi ↓, Willian ↑,
74', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Gustavo Martins (A),
78', Acosta L. ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
78', Nonato ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
79', Serna K. ↓, Savarino J. ↑,
86', Canobbio A. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
86', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Fluminense is the team to beat.

There will not play in Fluminense: Savarino J. (Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Canobbio A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:30. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Boavista - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Fluminense - Madureira	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.12.25	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLWL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.01.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	4:2 ✺
21.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0 ✺
14.01.26	Grêmio - EC São José Porto Alegre	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Avenida - Grêmio	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.12.25	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:2
02.08.25	Fluminense - Grêmio	1:0
01.11.24	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:2
Copa Libertadores
20.08.24	Fluminense - Grêmio	3:1 penalties
13.08.24	Grêmio - Fluminense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
30.06.24	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:0
06.12.23	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:3

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