Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sportitalia Solo Calcio


	Folgore Caratese		Breno

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.7	4.35
	1.63	3.71	4.47
	1.66	3.86	4.34	Watch
	1.61	3.72	4.73
	1.65	3.8	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.62)	3.76 ↓ (3.85)	4.46 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore Caratese
55.5%

Draw
24.1%

Breno
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

23.4%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

22.1%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Folgore Caratese have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Breno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Breno than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Folgore Caratese - Breno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Binous S. A. ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Gjonaj E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
80', 2 - 1, Castelli M. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Folgore Caratese won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Folgore Caratese is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Folgore Caratese won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Folgore Caratese won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Folgore Caratese - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 55.5%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie D - Group B
02.11.25	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Folgore Caratese	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Folgore Caratese - Milan Futuro	2:3 ✺
19.10.25	Casatese - Folgore Caratese	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Folgore Caratese - Chievo	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Folgore Caratese - Club Milano	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLTLL
- Breno Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
02.11.25	Caldiero Terme - Breno	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Breno - Scanzorosciate	0:0 ✺
22.10.25	Breno - Milan Futuro	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Sondrio - Breno	1:0 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group B
05.10.25	Casatese - Breno	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
09.02.25	Folgore Caratese - Breno	4:2
13.10.24	Breno - Folgore Caratese	1:0
01.04.23	Folgore Caratese - Breno	1:2
20.11.22	Breno - Folgore Caratese	0:1
13.02.22	Folgore Caratese - Breno	2:1
06.10.21	Breno - Folgore Caratese	2:2

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