Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 27

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: GIEKSA Arena (Bełchatów)


	GKS Bełchatów		Warta Sieradz

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.6	1.88
	3.31	3.83	1.89	Watch
	3.2	3.82	1.97	Watch
	3.78	4.2	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↓ (3.78)	3.86 ↓ (4.2)	1.83 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

GKS Bełchatów
26.8%

Draw
23.6%

Warta Sieradz
49.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

21%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

20.3%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

GKS Bełchatów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Warta Sieradz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Warta Sieradz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Bełchatów than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warta Sieradz than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

GKS Bełchatów - Warta Sieradz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Napolov S. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Owczarek D. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
48', 2 - 1, Piela J. ⚽,
66', 2 - 2, Pietrzak S. ⚽,
70', 2 - 3, Drzazga K. ⚽,
90+6', 3 - 3, Sarnik S. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bełchatów won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Warta Sieradz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Warta Sieradz has had a series of home games.

Warta Sieradz could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bełchatów won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bełchatów won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Warta Sieradz	10	4	3	3	18:16	2	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GKS Bełchatów
Polish Division 3 - Group I
12.04.26	Wasilków - GKS Bełchatów	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	GKS Bełchatów - Mławianka Mława	0:1 ✺
28.03.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - GKS Bełchatów	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	GKS Bełchatów - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	GKS Bełchatów - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LLWWW
- Warta Sieradz
Polish Division 3 - Group I
10.04.26	Warta Sieradz - Troszyn	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Legia II - Warta Sieradz	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Warta Sieradz - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:1 ✺
25.03.26	Warta Sieradz - Olimpia Elbląg	4:1 ✺
20.03.26	Warta Sieradz - Widzew Łódź II	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
27.09.25	Warta Sieradz - GKS Bełchatów	2:1
10.05.25	Warta Sieradz - GKS Bełchatów	3:0
12.10.24	GKS Bełchatów - Warta Sieradz	1:0
03.05.24	Warta Sieradz - GKS Bełchatów	2:1
08.10.23	GKS Bełchatów - Warta Sieradz	3:2
Club Friendly
02.02.22	GKS Bełchatów - Warta Sieradz	0:5

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