Match Info

GEORGIA: Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga - Round 31

Date: 1 November 2024, Friday

Location: David Petriashvili Stadium (Tbilisi)

Referee: Serkhadze I. (Geo)


	Gagra		Samtredia

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	2.85
	2.21	3.2	2.95	Watch
	2.31	3.4	3.02
	2.24	3.19	3.04	Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.8
	2.21	3.25	2.95
	2.21	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.9)	3.25 ↑ (3.2)	2.94 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gagra
41.1%

Draw
28%

Samtredia
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

28.4%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

28.5%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gagra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gagra's form might have worsened.

Samtredia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samtredia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gagra than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gagra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samtredia than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samtredia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gagra - Samtredia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vorobey O. (C) 26. Gabiskiria B. 13. Gegetchkori L. 14. Tchavtchanidze Z. 34. Santos Porfirio A. J. 11. Lakvekheliani L. 9. Lomtadze G. 30. Nadareishvili G. 15. Aptsiauri O. 7. Kavtaradze N. 33. Kharebashvili G.	1. Megrelishvili T. (G) 2. Kvaratskhelia L. 22. Carrillo J. 14. Leo Assunpcao 40. Ubilava D. (C) 39. Andre d. S. R. 8. Barrios E. 6. Owusu D. 7. Ardazishvili R. 9. Amoako J. 21. Martin I.
Substitutes
12. Bediashvili G. (G) 35. Gogoladze G. 18. Ouloguem A. 8. Papuashvili G. 16. Tchamba C. 40. Tsitskishvili Z. 20. Ubilava G.	38. Aknazarov M. 4. Chachua J. 30. Chitaishvili M. 36. Danelia R. 15. Kveladze G. 25. Labadze A. (G) 10. Natan Baiano 11. Nkoumba E. 24. Odishelidze R.
Coaches
Khachidze V.	Kakashvili V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Aptsiauri O. ⚽, Kharebashvili G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Andre d. S. R. ↓, Aknazarov M. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Owusu D. ⚽,
63', Amoako J. ↓, Nkoumba E. ↑,
63', Kvaratskhelia L. ↓, Kveladze G. ↑,
67', Nadareishvili G. ↓, Papuashvili G. ↑,
67', Kavtaradze N. ↓, Tchamba C. ↑,
74', Lakvekheliani L. ↓, Ubilava G. ↑,
78', Aptsiauri O. ↓, Ouloguem A. ↑,
78', Lomtadze G. ↓, Tsitskishvili Z. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Kharebashvili G. ⚽,
86', Ardazishvili R. ↓, Natan Baiano ↑,
86', Owusu D. ↓, Odishelidze R. ↑,
90+2', Papuashvili G. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gagra won 3.

Recent matches Gagra is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Samtredia is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gagra will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Gagra won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12:12 (average 1.7:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Gagra won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 2:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gagra FC
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
27.10.24	Gagra - Kolkheti Poti	3:1 ✺
18.10.24	Dinamo Batumi - Gagra	3:2 ✺
06.10.24	Gagra - Dila Gori	0:5 ✺
01.10.24	Gagra - Dinamo Tbilisi	0:0 ✺
26.09.24	Iberia 1999 - Gagra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLLTT
- FC Samtredia
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
27.10.24	Samtredia - Iberia 1999	0:1 ✺
19.10.24	Kolkheti Poti - Samtredia	0:0 ✺
06.10.24	Samtredia - Torpedo Kutaisi	2:1 ✺
01.10.24	Dinamo Batumi - Samtredia	1:2 ✺
26.09.24	Samtredia - Telavi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 37.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Georgian Erovnuli Liga
24.08.24	Samtredia - Gagra	2:0
10.05.24	Gagra - Samtredia	2:1
16.03.24	Samtredia - Gagra	1:3
28.11.23	Gagra - Samtredia	4:3
23.09.23	Samtredia - Gagra	3:1
28.05.23	Gagra - Samtredia	0:1
13.04.23	Samtredia - Gagra	1:2

Gagra - Samtredia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide