Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Galapagar		Móstoles URJC

	1	X	2
	4.35	3.6	1.65
	25.00	5.81	1.15	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.75
	4.37	3.62	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.48 ↑ (3.58)	4.11 ↑ (3.3)	1.56 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Galapagar
10.6%

Draw
24.6%

Móstoles URJC
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27.5%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

26.9%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Galapagar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Galapagar's form might have worsened.

Móstoles URJC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Móstoles URJC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Galapagar than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Galapagar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Móstoles URJC than the current prediction. (-16.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Móstoles URJC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Galapagar - Móstoles URJC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', 0 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 7 (Play Offs: )).

Galapagar has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Móstoles is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Móstoles might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Galapagar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1).

Including home match between the teams, Galapagar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	CD Mostoles	5	3	2	0	6:2	4	11
7	Galapagar	5	2	2	1	10:8	2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Galapagar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
15.02.26	Leganés B - Galapagar	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Galapagar - San Sebastian Reyes B	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Trival Valderas - Galapagar	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Galapagar - Racing Madrid	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Torrejón - Galapagar	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WTTWL
- CD Móstoles URJC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
15.02.26	Móstoles URJC - San Sebastian Reyes B	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Racing Madrid - Móstoles URJC	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Móstoles URJC - Las Rozas	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Unión Adarve - Móstoles URJC	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Móstoles URJC - Villaverde San Andrés	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
12.10.25	Móstoles URJC - Galapagar	1:0
07.01.24	Móstoles URJC - Galapagar	0:0
22.01.23	Móstoles URJC - Galapagar	2:0
18.09.22	Galapagar - Móstoles URJC	0:1

Galapagar - Móstoles URJC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide