Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Gandzasar (Kapan)


	Gandzasar		Sardarapat

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.30	2.10
	2.95	3.35	2.05
	3.00	3.75	2.18
	2.90	3.68	2.21	Watch
	3.00	3.50	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.59)	3.52 ↑ (3.49)	2.13 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gandzasar
31%

Draw
26%

Sardarapat
43%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.8%

25.8%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

24.1%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gandzasar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Sardarapat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gandzasar than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gandzasar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sardarapat than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sardarapat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gandzasar - Sardarapat Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matevosyan G. (G) 14. Ahouangbo M. 18. Avanesyan A. (C) 20. Dabo A. 29. Decio Neto 55. Kanda S. 12. Khachatryan A. 7. Mani B. 21. Reis L. 33. Robson 79. Rocha T.	39. Matinyan G. (G) 77. Abrahamyan G. 10. Budagyan Y. 3. Doumbia V. 21. Galstyan S. 23. Hakobyan M. 28. Minasyan H. 8. Petrosyan L. 19. Quinonez J. 4. Sargsyan A. (C) 25. Yann Lago C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Reis L. ⚽, Rocha T. (A),
38', Matevosyan G. 🟨,
41', Minasyan H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Petrosyan L. ⚽,
56', 1 - 2, Petrosyan L. ⚽,
66', Matinyan G. 🟨,
82', Abrahamyan G. 🟨,
85', Dabo A. 🟥,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 12th in the Relegation - First League and 6th).

Gandzasar is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Sardarapat has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Sardarapat	10	4	3	3	17:18	-1	15
12	FC Gandzasar	10	1	0	9	9:24	-15	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gandzasar FC
Armenian Premier League
10.10.26	Van - Gandzasar	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Gandzasar - Urartu Yerevan	0:3 ✺
12.09.26	Gandzasar - Ararat	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Noah Yerevan - Gandzasar	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Gandzasar - BKMA Yerevan	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Sardarapat FC
Armenian Premier League
11.10.26	Sardarapat - Noah Yerevan	1:5 ✺
19.09.26	BKMA Yerevan - Sardarapat	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sardarapat - Alashkert	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Sardarapat - Pyunik	2:4 ✺
06.09.26	Shirak Gyumri - Sardarapat	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTLL

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