Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 5

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Essity Stadium (Flint)

Referee: James M. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Gap Connahs Quay		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	1.60	3.80	4.33
	1.54	3.70	5.10
	1.67	3.89	4.48
	1.64	4.11	4.72	Watch
	1.67	3.90	4.45
	1.60	3.84	4.67
	1.65	3.80	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.4)	3.86 ↓ (4.66)	4.59 ↓ (7.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gap Connahs Quay
56.4%

Draw
23.7%

Cambrian United
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

20%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

19.2%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gap Connahs Quay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gap Connahs Quay's form might have worsened.

Cambrian United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cambrian United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cambrian United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gap Connahs Quay - Cambrian United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Renshaw C. (G) 16. Deane F. 22. Ferguson J. 9. Franklin H. 5. Hughes A. 4. Jones J. 10. Murray I. 23. Sharif A. 11. Stone M. 21. Watson R. 8. West C.	1. Absalom K. (G) 36. Allen J. 9. Bonthron A. 10. Eason L. 11. Edwards D. 4. Evans A. 5. Jones K. 14. Morris J. 12. Strinati C. 7. Thomas F. 8. Woodford J.
Substitutes
6. Cowan D. 68. Liepa D. (G) 99. Mehasseb H. 34. Partridge C. 27. Redshaw F. 7. Stephenson D. 18. Woodcock M.	40. Bright H. 16. Hillman D. 6. John A. 23. Joseph J. 20. Karadogan J. 18. Lewis K. 13. Morgan M. (G)
Coaches
Disney J.	Williams L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, West C. ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Murray I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Eason L. 🟨,
57', 🟨,
60', 🟨,
61', Evans A. ↓, Bright H. ↑,
61', Bonthron A. ↓, Hillman D. ↑,
70', Deane F. ↓, Redshaw F. ↑,
70', Hughes A. ↓, Partridge C. ↑,
70', Watson R. ↓, Cowan D. ↑,
70', Stone M. ↓, Woodcock M. ↑,
77', Thomas F. ↓, Karadogan J. ↑,
77', Jones K. ↓, Lewis K. ↑,
77', Allen J. ↓, John A. ↑,
84', Cowan D. 🟨,
88', West C. ↓, Mehasseb H. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 0, Murray I. ⚽,
90+5', Karadogan J. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Connahs Quay is the obvious favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Connahs Q.: 3.14% Cambrian United: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21:32	-11	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
22.08.26	Ammanford - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2 ✺
14.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Trefelin	6:0 ✺
07.08.26	Holywell Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:3 ✺
02.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Ballkani - Gap Connahs Quay	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWWLL
- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.08.26	Haverfordwest County - Cambrian United	0:3 ✺
14.08.26	Cambrian United - Flint Town United	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Cambrian United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1 ✺
31.07.26	Barry Town United - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.07.26	Merthyr Town - Cambrian United	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTLL

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