Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Gela		Castrumfavara

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.35	2.62
	1.86	3.55	3.64	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.5
	1.9	3.24	3.76
	1.84	3.5	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.35)	3.35 ↓ (3.41)	3.44 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Gela
46.2%

Draw
27.2%

Castrumfavara
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.9%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

27.1%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gela's performance.

Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castrumfavara might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gela than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castrumfavara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gela - Castrumfavara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Cangemi A. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
59', 2 - 0, Cangemi A. ⚽,
65', 2 - 1, Polifemo S. ⚽,
77', 3 - 1, Aperi S. ⚽,
89', 4 - 1, Marino M. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 10).

Recent performances by Gela have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castrumfavara is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gela could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSD Città di Gela
Italian Serie D - Group I
30.11.25	Reggina - Gela	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Gela - Nissa	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Paternò - Gela	1:4 ✺
09.11.25	Gela - Sambiase	0:3 ✺
02.11.25	Milazzo - Gela	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWLL
- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
30.11.25	Castrumfavara - Athletic Palermo	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Acireale - Castrumfavara	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
19.11.25	Nocerina - Castrumfavara	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group I
16.11.25	Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Sancataldese - Castrumfavara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLTL

Gela - Castrumfavara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide