Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Castrumfavara		Igea Virtus Barcellona

	1	X	2
	4.50	3.50	1.65
	4.40	3.40	1.65
	4.59	3.75	1.59
	4.64	3.58	1.67	Watch
	4.50	3.70	1.57
	4.69	3.91	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.55 ↑ (3.3)	3.64 ↑ (3.15)	1.63 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castrumfavara
19.8%

Draw
24.8%

Igea Virtus Barcellona
55.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27%

28.3%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castrumfavara's form might have worsened.

Igea Virtus Barcellona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Igea Virtus Barcellona's recent form is better than expected.

Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 3 - 1, ⚽,
62', 3 - 2, ⚽,
64', 🟥,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 14th in the Serie D - Group I (Play Out: ) and 5th in the Promotion - Serie D - Group I Playoffs).

Performances by Igea Virtus have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Igea Virtus may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Igea Virtus is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Castrumfavara has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:4 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Castrumfavara against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21:17	4	15
14	Castrumfavara	8	2	1	5	8:10	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
04.10.26	Vigor Lamezia - Castrumfavara	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Castrumfavara - Avola	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Modica - Castrumfavara	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Castrumfavara - Milazzo	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	Castrumfavara - Enna	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWT
- ASD Igea Virtus Barcellona
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.10.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Reggina	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group I
04.10.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Nissa	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Reggina - Igea Virtus Barcellona	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Vibonese	4:3 ✺
12.09.26	Vigor Lamezia - Igea Virtus Barcellona	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group I
29.03.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Castrumfavara	3:2
16.11.25	Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona	0:0
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona	3:1

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