Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Castrumfavara		Igea Virtus Barcellona

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.05	2.42
	2.73	2.92	2.52
	2.15	3.32	3.05	Watch
	2.69	3.21	2.59
	3.15	3.3	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.08)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	2.54 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Castrumfavara
34.4%

Draw
29.2%

Igea Virtus Barcellona
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

27.1%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

28.2%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castrumfavara's form might have worsened.

Igea Virtus Barcellona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Igea Virtus Barcellona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castrumfavara, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Igea Virtus Barcellona than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Igea Virtus Barcellona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Igea Virtus (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Igea Virtus (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
73', 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs: )).

Castrumfavara is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Igea Virtus is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castrumfavara won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Including home match between the teams, Castrumfavara won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
09.11.25	Sancataldese - Castrumfavara	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Castrumfavara - Vigor Lamezia	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	ACR Messina - Castrumfavara	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Castrumfavara - Ragusa	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Savoia - Castrumfavara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLWL
- ASD Igea Virtus Barcellona
Italian Serie D - Group I
09.11.25	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Gelbison Cilento	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Reggina - Igea Virtus Barcellona	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Nissa	3:2 ✺
19.10.25	Paternò - Igea Virtus Barcellona	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Sambiase	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona	3:1

Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide