The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Gimnástic de Tarragona 31.4%
Draw 33.2%
Alcorcón 35.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43%
27.8%
29.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.2%
27%
28.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gimnástic de Tarragona's form might have worsened.
Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alcorcón's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+12.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnástic de Tarragona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alcorcón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Gimnástic de Tarragona - Alcorcón Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rebollo D. (G) 4. Alba D. 22. Alvaro Garcia 5. Morgado C. 20. Santos S. 19. Fuentes J. 8. Montalvo M. 10. Jardi J. 14. Sanz O. (C) 23. Baselga M. 9. Omoigui C.
1. Ayesa G. (G) 3. Nieto S. 19. Pola J. 6. Perez I. 2. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 22. Blanco R. 5. Rai (C) 4. Rojas J. 18. Aguado T. 11. Kopotun V. 9. Carmona M.
Substitutes
12. Almpanis C. 31. Alves A. 2. Camus S. 13. Fuidias T. (G) 11. Jimenez A. 7. Junca D. 17. Martinez P. 6. Prendes M. 21. Pujol E. 29. Subirats O. 15. Torres F.
7. Aparicio E. 10. Ballesteros Y. 17. Lanchi 8. Martinez B. 13. Marti O. (G) 23. Navarro D. 24. Perez L. 15. Rodriguez S. 14. Vacas L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Pola J. 🟨,
41', Sanz O. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Carmona M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sanz O. ↓, Prendes M. ↑,
65', Aguado T. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Jardi J. ⚽,
78', Alba D. ↓, Pujol E. ↑,
78', Baselga M. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
79', Carmona M. ↓, Aparicio E. ↑,
83', Alvaro Garcia ↓, Martinez P. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Martinez B. ⚽,
90+1', Kopotun V. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
90+5', Morgado C. 🟨,
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimnàstic won 1.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Alcorcón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Gimnàstic could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gimnàstic won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.4:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Gimnàstic won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.4:2.2).
Last Results with these Odds
Gimnástic de Tarragona - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.03%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.
Spain
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Rebollo D. (G) 
Fuentes J. 
Omoigui C. 
Kopotun V. 
Almpanis C. 
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