Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 10 September 2025, Wednesday


	Alcorcón		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.3	2.58
	2.46	3.35	2.62
	2.14	2.98	3.50	Watch
	2.41	3.24	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.53)	3.22 ↓ (3.28)	2.82 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcorcón
38.8%

Draw
28.6%

Leonesa
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

27.5%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

26.7%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Alcorcón - Leonesa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Alcorcón (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcorcón (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Marti O. (G) 28. Everson 17. Lanchi 8. Martinez B. 23. Navarro D. 30. Nico 6. Perez I. 24. Perez L. 5. Rai 15. Rodriguez S. 14. Vacas L.	1. Banuz M. (G) 7. Collado D. 23. Diallo Selu M. 5. Fornos Q. (C) 24. Garcia V. 30. Gonzalez M. 8. Gonzalez Y. 33. Larios J. 2. Mboula J. 19. Sobrino R. 31. Toca N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
87', 0 - 1, Sanchez J. ⚽,

Preview

Alcorcón is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leonesa is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Leonesa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcorcón won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcorcón won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Leonesa - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.79%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.09.25	Alcorcón - Teruel	2:1 ✺
01.09.25	Villarreal B - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Alcorcón - Atlético Baleares	1:0 ✺
22.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Talavera de la Reina - Alcorcón	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWTW
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
07.09.25	Leonesa - Leganés	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Leonesa - Almería	0:1 ✺
15.08.25	Burgos - Leonesa	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lugo - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.03.23	Leonesa - Alcorcón	0:2
16.10.22	Alcorcón - Leonesa	2:0
Spanish LaLiga2
04.05.18	Alcorcón - Leonesa	0:0
03.12.17	Leonesa - Alcorcón	2:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
07.09.17	Alcorcón - Leonesa	2:4

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