Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 9

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Municipal Stadium Farvão (Gouveia)


	Gouveia		Alpendorada

	1	X	2
	7.1	4.35	1.35
	7.75	4.29	1.34
	6.62	3.71	1.49	Watch
	8.5	4.2	1.34
	5	3.6	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.99 ↑ (5.09)	4.03 ↑ (3.6)	1.42 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gouveia
13.1%

Draw
22.7%

Alpendorada
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

25.2%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

24.5%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gouveia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Alpendorada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alpendorada's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gouveia than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alpendorada than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alpendorada, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gouveia - Alpendorada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 4).

Gouveia is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alpendorada is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Alpendorada is considered a favorite.

We predict that Alpendorada will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Gouveia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.11.25	Cinfães - Gouveia	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Gouveia - Florgrade	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Leça - Gouveia	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Gouveia - Vila Real	0:5 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Rebordelo - Gouveia	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Alpendorada
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.11.25	Alpendorada - União Lamas	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Vila Meã - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Alpendorada - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
04.10.25	Cinfães - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Alpendorada - Florgrade	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 WTWTW

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