Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 10

Date: 24 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Henrique Meira Bispo G. (Bra)


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Água Santa

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.4	5.5
	1.7	3.5	5	Watch
	1.7	3.3	5.6
	1.71	3.5	5.53
	1.57	3.3	5.5
	1.68	3.42	5.23	Watch
	1.64	3.35	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.92)	3.4 ↑ (3.09)	5.38 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
55.6%

Draw
27.2%

Água Santa
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

29.3%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

30.3%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio Novorizontino's performance.

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Água Santa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio Novorizontino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Água Santa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Grêmio Novorizontino - Água Santa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 14. Danilo Barcelos 77. Fabricio Daniel 28. Marlon 9. Neto Pessoa 3. Rafael Donato 33. Renato (C) 16. Reverson 30. Waguininho 97. Willean Lepo 8. Willian Farias	1. Ygor Vinhas (G) 2. Alex Silva 11. Bruno Xavier 6. Gabriel Inocencio 4. Jhonnathan 9. Junior Todinho 5. Kady 20. Keke 10. Luan Dias 3. Roger Carvalho (C) 8. Thiaguinho
Substitutes
1. Airton (G) 26. Dantas 31. Galo D. 29. Isack Gabriel 91. Jenison 21. Joao Afonso 49. Kaue Canela 11. Lucca 25. Luisao 75. Paulo V. 22. Raul Prata 7. Rodolfo	17. Artur 19. Bruno Mezenga 16. Cristiano 22. Jael 13. Joilson 24. Jota 18. Leo Sena 12. Matheus Novaes (G) 7. Neilton 15. Rafael Oller 14. Robles Fuentes A. 21. Ronald
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Bruno Pivetti

Preview

Recent matches Novorizontino is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Água Santa is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Novorizontino is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Novorizontino won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Novorizontino won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
15.02.24	Internacional de Limeira - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:1 ✺
12.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
07.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
04.02.24	Corinthians - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WLWLW
- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
15.02.24	Portuguesa - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
11.02.24	Água Santa - Ituano	2:0 ✺
07.02.24	São Paulo - Água Santa	3:0 ✺
03.02.24	Água Santa - Mirassol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.02.22	Água Santa - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
Brazilian Copa Paulista
02.12.20	Grêmio Novorizontino - Água Santa	0:3
28.11.20	Água Santa - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.20	Água Santa - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2
24.03.16	Grêmio Novorizontino - Água Santa	4:0

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