Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.00	3.50	Watch
	2.15	2.90	3.50
	2.20	3.05	3.40	Watch
	2.28	3.08	3.80
	2.15	3.04	3.7	Watch
	2.19	3.00	3.70
	2.24	2.98	3.48	Watch
	2.18	2.95	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.38)	3 ↓ (3.05)	3.58 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
42.6%

Draw
31.2%

Criciúma
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30.3%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	58.3%	16.7%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Criciúma (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 3. Carlinhos 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 41. Reidiney 17. Matheus Bianqui 6. Luis Oyama (C) 16. Vinicius Paiva 9. Carlao 10. Romulo	70. Pedro Santos (G) 37. Cesar Martins 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 97. Willean Lepo 5. Eduardo 8. Gui Lobo 22. Marcelo Hermes 91. Otero R. 13. Waguininho 7. Fellipe Mateus
Substitutes
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 18. Leo Naldi 24. Lora J. 28. Marlon 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 7. Ronald Barcellos 15. Tavinho	1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 88. Caue Santos 77. Diego Goncalves 31. Hiago Alves 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 9. Nicolas 11. Romarinho 14. Ronald Lopes 50. Thiaguinho
Coaches
Moreira E.	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Luciano Castan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Caue Santos ↑,
56', Luis Oyama 🟨,
62', Reidiney ↓, Juninho ↑,
64', Otero R. ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
65', Waguininho ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
72', Luis Oyama ↓, Ronald Barcellos ↑,
72', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
74', Ivan Alvarino 🟨,
81', Eduardo ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Diego Goncalves ⚽, Cesar Martins (A),
84', Romulo ↓, Diego Mathias ↑,
85', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
87', Leo Naldi 🟨,
90+4', Gui Lobo ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3.

Recent performances by Novorizontino have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Criciúma is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Novorizontino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Arthur Barbosa (Inactive) Hector Bianchi (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Robson (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Criciúma: Cesar Martins (Inactive) Yuri Tanque (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Carlinhos (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Airton (Inactive) Heitor Roca (Inactive) Marcinho (Inactive) Octavio Henrique (Muscle Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.47%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.26	Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense	3:0 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
22.06.26	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWW
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
18.07.26	Criciúma - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
08.07.26	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
04.07.26	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
23.06.26	América Mineiro - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.08.25	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0
21.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	1:1
25.11.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	2:0
22.07.23	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
14.08.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	3:1
01.05.22	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
27.08.21	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	1:0

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