Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Criciúma		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.77	3.20	4.60
	1.72	3.25	5.15	Watch
	1.83	3.3	5.35
	1.83	3.2	4.86	Watch
	1.77	3.25	5.3
	1.7	3.35	5.42	Watch
	1.75	3.25	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.7)	3.28 ↓ (3.35)	5.15 ↓ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
53.3%

Draw
28.6%

Vila Nova
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

27.8%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

26.8%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	5.9%	5.9%

Criciúma - Vila Nova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (2.14) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Criciúma (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Criciúma will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
70. Pedro Santos (G) 34. Bruno Alves 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 97. Willean Lepo 5. Eduardo 8. Gui Lobo 22. Marcelo Hermes 91. Otero R. 13. Waguininho 7. Fellipe Mateus	1. Helton Leite (G) 16. Igor Carius 3. Tiago Pagnussat 23. Breno Augusto 6. Higor 5. Joao Vieira 21. Higor Meritao 15. Dudu 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 49. Dellatorre
Substitutes
1. Alisson (G) 88. Caue Santos 77. Diego Goncalves 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 9. Nicolas 11. Romarinho 14. Ronald Lopes 43. Ruan Carvalho 50. Thiaguinho	19. Caique 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 20. Nathan Camargo 4. Samuel Lucas 13. Willian Formiga
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Fellipe Mateus ⚽, Gui Lobo (A),
26', Luciano Castan 🟨,
34', Gui Lobo 🟨,
39', Tiago Pagnussat 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gui Lobo ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
49', Bruno Alves 🟨,
51', Eduardo 🟨,
58', Eduardo ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
58', Otero R. ↓, Romarinho ↑,
61', Higor Meritao ↓, Enzo Bizzotto ↑,
61', Igor Carius ↓, Nathan Camargo ↑,
61', Dudu ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
63', Higor 🟨,
69', Enzo Bizzotto 🟨,
78', Janderson ↓, Caique ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Marcelo Hermes ⚽, Ronald Lopes (A),
89', Waguininho ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
90', Jean Irmer 🟨,
90+1', Dellatorre ↓, Hayner ↑,
90+5', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Jhonata Robert ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 2.

Criciúma is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vila Nova's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Criciúma is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Criciúma: Heitor Roca (Inactive) Marcinho (Inactive) Nicolas (Inactive) Octavio Henrique (Muscle Injury) Yuri Tanque (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Andre Luis (Yellow Cards) Rafa Silva (Knee Injury) Willian Maranhao (Inactive)

We predict that Criciúma will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 0.9:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 0.9:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.63%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
08.07.26	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
04.07.26	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
23.06.26	América Mineiro - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
10.07.26	Juventude - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
14.06.26	Cuiabá - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.10.25	Vila Nova - Criciúma	1:1
09.06.25	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0
22.08.23	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0
12.05.23	Vila Nova - Criciúma	0:0
04.10.22	Vila Nova - Criciúma	1:0
25.06.22	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0
01.10.19	Vila Nova - Criciúma	1:1

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