Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	Gran Peña		Barbadás

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.1	4.35
	1.76	3.55	4.33	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.2
	1.76	3.2	4.55
	1.8	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.79)	3.21 ↑ (3.16)	4.39 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gran Peña
50.8%

Draw
28.4%

Barbadás
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

28.7%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

24.5%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gran Peña has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Barbadás has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gran Peña than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gran Peña that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barbadás than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Gran Peña - Barbadás Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
66', 0 - 1, ⚽,
73', 0 - 2, ⚽,
89', 🟥,
90+5', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Gran Peña has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Barbadás has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gran Peña may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gran Peña is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Gran Peña won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Gran Peña won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gran Peña FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
14.12.25	Alondras - Gran Peña	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gran Peña - Lugo B	2:3 ✺
23.11.25	Gran Peña - Viveiro	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Silva SD - Gran Peña	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Gran Peña - Céltiga	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLTWL
- UD Barbadás
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
13.12.25	Barbadás - Silva SD	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Céltiga - Barbadás	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Barbadás - Juventud Cambados	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Boiro - Barbadás	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Barbadás - Barco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
17.04.25	Barbadás - Gran Peña	2:0
15.09.24	Gran Peña - Barbadás	0:0
02.12.23	Barbadás - Gran Peña	0:2

Gran Peña - Barbadás: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide