Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
World	Onefootball


	Sturm Graz		Grazer AK

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.45	4.25
	1.89	3.5	4.74
	1.86	3.45	4.48	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4.33
	1.85	3.5	4.88	Watch
	1.81	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.46)	3.41 ↓ (4.18)	4.53 ↓ (6.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
51.4%

Draw
27.7%

Grazer AK
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

22.1%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21.4%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.

Grazer AK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grazer AK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sturm Graz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grazer AK than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grazer AK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Sturm Graz - Grazer AK Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Grazer (3.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grazer (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Christensen O. (G) 23. Malic A. 2. Mitchell J. 35. Geyrhofer N. 17. Karic E. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 19. Horvat T. 8. Rozga F. 10. Kiteishvili O. 38. Grgic L. 77. Malone M.	1. Meierhofer J. (G) 82. Owusu B. 2. Pines D. 27. Oberleitner Y. 6. Fofana S. 20. Schriebl T. 8. Koch T. 7. Satin M. 17. Schiestl T. 22. Harakate R. 9. Maderner D. (C)
Substitutes
26. Beganovic B. 14. Bendra K. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 21. Chukwuani T. 27. Haider G. 25. Hierlander S. 43. Hodl J. 20. Jatta S. 11. Kayombo A.	11. Cipot T. 98. Ehmann F. (G) 28. Frieser D. 15. Graf L. 25. Hofleitner A. 4. Kreuzriegler M. 10. Lichtenberger C. 24. Paumgartner T. 3. Vraa-Jensen L.
Coaches
Saumel J.	Feldhofer F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Mitchell J. ⚽, Horvat T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', Grgic L. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Malone M. ⚽, Rozga F. (A),
70', Schriebl T. ↓, Frieser D. ↑,
75', Koch T. 🟨,
81', Rozga F. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
81', Gorenc Stankovic J. ↓, Chukwuani T. ↑,
82', Oberleitner Y. ↓, Kreuzriegler M. ↑,
83', Schiestl T. ↓, Cipot T. ↑,
84', Maderner D. ↓, Hofleitner A. ↑,
85', Malone M. 🟨,
87', Mitchell J. ↓, Haider G. ↑,
88', Malone M. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
90+5', Fofana S. ↓, Lichtenberger C. ↑,
90+8', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
90+8', Hofleitner A. 🟨,
90+10', 2 - 1, Lichtenberger C. ⚽, Cipot T. (A),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).

Sturm is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Grazer is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Grazer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sturm is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Sturm: Aiwu E. (Red Card) Lavalee D. (Injury)

There will not play in Grazer: Italiano J. (Calf Injury) Jano Z. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 2.8:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sturm won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Sturm Graz - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 63.53%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
03.12.25	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	1:3 ✺
30.11.25	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Panathinaikos - Sturm Graz	2:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
23.11.25	Sturm Graz - LASK Linz	1:3 ✺
09.11.25	Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLT
- Grazer AK
Austrian Bundesliga
29.11.25	Grazer AK - Blau-Weiss Linz	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Rapid Wien - Grazer AK	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
14.11.25	Aluminij Kidricevo - Grazer AK	0:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
08.11.25	Austria Wien - Grazer AK	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Grazer AK - Rheindorf Altach	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
30.08.25	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	0:3
09.03.25	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	1:2
19.10.24	Sturm Graz - Grazer AK	5:2
Austrian OFB Cup
02.11.23	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	2:3
19.10.22	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	0:1

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