Match Info

Cymru North - Round 21

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday


	Gresford Athletic		Holywell Town

	1	X	2
	4.85	4.45	1.47
	5.17	4.8	1.52
	5.12	4.77	1.5	Watch
	4.8	4.2	1.44
	4.67	4.67	1.56
	5	4.5	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.94 ↓ (7.2)	4.57 ↓ (5.26)	1.49 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gresford Athletic
18.5%

Draw
20%

Holywell Town
61.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.9%

17.7%

69.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.3%

16.9%

72.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gresford Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gresford Athletic's performance.

Holywell Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Holywell Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gresford Athletic than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gresford Athletic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holywell Town than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Holywell Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gresford Athletic - Holywell Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Orton E. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', 1 - 1, Breese J. ⚽,
65', 2 - 1, Smith T. ⚽,
73', 3 - 1, Smith T. ⚽,
79', 3 - 2, Winslade M. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gresford won 1.

Gresford has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Holywell Town is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Holywell Town is the clear favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gresford won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:25. (average 1:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gresford won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Gresford	9	2	1	6	6:21	-15	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gresford Athletic
Welsh Cymru North
23.01.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Gresford Athletic	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Gresford Athletic - Penrhyncoch	3:2 ✺
01.01.26	Denbigh Town - Gresford Athletic	2:3 ✺
27.12.25	Gresford Athletic - Brickfield Rangers	1:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Barry Town United - Gresford Athletic	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LWWTL
- Holywell Town
Welsh Cymru North
24.01.26	Holywell Town - Mold Alexandra	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ruthin Town - Holywell Town	3:3 ✺
01.01.26	Holywell Town - Holyhead Hotspur	4:1 ✺
26.12.25	Flint Mountain - Holywell Town	0:3 ✺
05.12.25	Rhyl - Holywell Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru North
13.09.25	Holywell Town - Gresford Athletic	8:4
05.04.25	Holywell Town - Gresford Athletic	0:0
07.02.25	Gresford Athletic - Holywell Town	3:0
27.01.24	Holywell Town - Gresford Athletic	4:1
12.01.24	Gresford Athletic - Holywell Town	0:5
21.01.23	Holywell Town - Gresford Athletic	2:0
24.09.22	Gresford Athletic - Holywell Town	1:2

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