Match Info

Serie D - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Grêmio Atlético Sampaio		Independência

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	2.9
	1.88	3.35	3.55
	1.82	3.41	3.9
				Watch
	1.86	3.42	3.72
	2.12	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.1)	3.36 ↓ (3.4)	3.41 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Atlético Sampaio
46.3%

Draw
27.1%

Independência
26.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.9%

26.5%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

25.7%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Atlético Sampaio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Atlético Sampaio than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+3%)

Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Independência Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. GAS (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

GAS is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, GAS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Atlético Sampaio
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Humaitá	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Manaus - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Tuna Luso Brasileira	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	3:0 ✺
24.05.25	Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Manaus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWTLL
- Independência FC
Brazilian Serie D
29.06.25	Independência - Trem	2:2 ✺
15.06.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Independência	3:0 ✺
07.06.25	Independência - Manaus	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Manaus - Independência	1:0 ✺
27.05.25	Independência - Tuna Luso Brasileira	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
10.05.25	Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	4:1

Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Independência