Match Info

League Two - Round 6

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Huadu Stadium (Guangzhou)


	Guangdong Mingtu		Jiangxi Lushan

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.2	3.2	1.75
	4.55	3.25	1.72	Watch
	4.63	3.39	1.7
	4.67	3.5	1.7	Watch
	4.5	3.1	1.73
	4.75	3.34	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.55 ↑ (3.04)	3.3 ↑ (3.01)	1.72 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guangdong Mingtu
19.9%

Draw
27.4%

Jiangxi Lushan
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

30%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

29.1%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guangdong Mingtu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guangdong Mingtu's form might have worsened.

Jiangxi Lushan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jiangxi Lushan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guangdong Mingtu than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guangdong Mingtu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jiangxi Lushan than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jiangxi Lushan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Guangdong Mingtu - Jiangxi Lushan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Li C. (G) 51. Yao H. 36. Tan Zhennan 41. Li T. 3. Liu Ruicheng 8. Tian Li 16. Cai M. 52. Zhong W. 6. Huang Guangliang (C) 43. Zhu X. 11. Xin Hongjun	12. Li Chen (G) 3. Wang Hongbin 19. Jiang H. 5. Shi Jiwei 22. Li Jiahao 6. Liu G. 27. Zhang Yanjun (C) 30. Huang J. 26. Pi Ziyang 33. Guo Song 7. Sun Yue
Substitutes
18. Abdusemet E. 7. Gu Zhiwei 42. He J. 9. Li Ming 48. Liu Z. 20. Memet'tursun Merdan 39. Pang Jiajun (G) 40. Sun Chenxi 10. Wen Y. 50. Wu Z. 19. Ye Zimin 28. Zhang Zhihao	10. Abdusalam S. 11. Bai Zijian 8. Cao Enze 2. He Quan 1. Liang J. (G) 17. Li Chenguang 28. Li Tianle (G) 24. Li Yan 18. Yang Pengju 4. Zhang G. 14. Zhou Jingxiang
Coaches
Sanabria A.	Choi Jin-han

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Li Jiahao 🟨,
30', Li Jiahao ↓, Bai Zijian ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Huang Guangliang ↓, Gu Zhiwei ↑,
55', Xin Hongjun ↓, He J. ↑,
64', Liu G. ↓, Zhang G. ↑,
66', Liu Ruicheng ↓, Wu Z. ↑,
66', Zhu X. ↓, Wen Y. ↑,
73', Shi Jiwei 🟨,
80', Jiang H. 🟨,
82', Tan Zhennan ↓, Zhang Zhihao ↑,
86', Yao H. ↓, Ye Zimin ↑,
89', Pi Ziyang ↓, Cao Enze ↑,
90', Huang J. ↓, Abdusalam S. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone League Two (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone League Two (Relegation Group: )).

Guangdong Mingtu is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jiangxi Lushan's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Guangdong Mingtu has had a series of away games.

In this match, Jiangxi Lushan is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Jiangxi Lushan	25	11	5	9	27:22	5	38

Last Results with these Odds

Jiangxi Lushan - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 40.34%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guangdong Mingtu
Chinese Yi League
25.04.26	Shenzhen - Guangdong Mingtu	3:1 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
19.04.26	Shanghai Second - Guangdong Mingtu	1:0 ✺
Chinese Yi League
14.04.26	Guangdong Mingtu - Guangzhou Dandelion Alpha	1:2 ✺
10.04.26	Xiamen Feilu - Guangdong Mingtu	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	Guizhou Guiyang Athletic - Guangdong Mingtu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLTL
- Jiangxi Lushan
Chinese Yi League
25.04.26	Jiangxi Lushan - Hubei Istar	0:1 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
19.04.26	Quanzhou Qinggong - Jiangxi Lushan	0:7 ✺
Chinese Yi League
14.04.26	Jiangxi Lushan - Guizhou Guiyang Athletic	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Guangzhou Dandelion Alpha - Jiangxi Lushan	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ganzhou Ruishi - Jiangxi Lushan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWLT

Guangdong Mingtu - Jiangxi Lushan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide