Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Citta dell Aria (Guidonia Montecelio)

Referee: Guitaldi G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Guidonia Montecelio		Pineto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.10	3.20
	1.93	3.00	3.55	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.51
	2.17	3.16	3.22	Watch
	2.20	2.95	3.45
	2.15	3.44	3.41	Watch
	2.10	3.10	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.07)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	3.38 ↓ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guidonia Montecelio
43.4%

Draw
29.3%

Pineto
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.5%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

28.6%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guidonia Montecelio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Pineto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guidonia Montecelio than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pineto than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Guidonia Montecelio - Pineto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Drago G. (G) 3. Malomo A. 2. Esempio S. (C) 26. Baroni R. 77. Zappella D. 20. Giannotti P. 4. Celeghin E. 17. Tascone S. 8. Errico A. 7. Sannipoli D. 30. Ferrari F.	22. Tonti A. (C) 52. Frare D. 13. Alessandretti G. 3. Ienco S. 2. Scheffer M. 21. Lombardi L. 8. Germinario G. 99. Pellegrino A. 15. Ferrante D. 9. Vigliotti G. 70. Forte R.
Substitutes
33. Borghini D. 18. D'Urso C. 73. Falleni A. 38. Frascatore P. 5. Mastrantonio V. 23. Murgia A. 22. Ramogida T. (G) 14. Santoro S. 10. Spavone A. 96. Stellato G. (G) 21. Tonetto M. 11. Viteritti O.	41. Asmussen A. 19. Biggi S. 43. Colaneri C. (G) 64. Corradini F. 10. Delle Monache M. 5. Di Renzo G. 28. D'Orazio T. 7. Guadagni G. 4. Nebuloso G. 69. Pistillo D. 11. Selvini A. 1. Turi C. (G)
Coaches
Ginestra C.	Bruno A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Ienco S. 🟨,
26', Esempio S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Forte R. ↓, Delle Monache M. ↑,
55', Vigliotti G. ↓, Selvini A. ↑,
57', Tascone S. ↓, Murgia A. ↑,
57', Errico A. ↓, Tonetto M. ↑,
60', Alessandretti G. 🟨,
64', Malomo A. ↓, Borghini D. ↑,
64', Sannipoli D. ↓, Spavone A. ↑,
73', Pellegrino A. ↓, Asmussen A. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Ferrari F. ⚽,
81', Ienco S. ↓, D'Orazio T. ↑,
81', Ferrante D. ↓, Guadagni G. ↑,
83', Giannotti P. ↓, Santoro S. ↑,
90+4', Ferrari F. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals) and 15th).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Guidonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Guidonia holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Guidonia has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:5 (averaging 1.5:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guidonia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Guidonia	8	3	3	2	10:7	3	12
15	Pineto	8	1	4	3	6:11	-5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.26	Vis Pesaro - Guidonia Montecelio	2:1 ✺
21.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Latina - Guidonia Montecelio	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Reggiana	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Pianese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTTTW
- ASD Pineto Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
26.09.26	Pineto - Grosseto	0:4 ✺
20.09.26	Campobasso - Pineto	2:2 ✺
16.09.26	Pineto - Forlì	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Pineto - Sambenedettese	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Perugia - Pineto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
11.01.26	Pineto - Guidonia Montecelio	3:3
01.09.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Pineto	0:2

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