Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Citta dell Aria (Guidonia Montecelio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Guidonia Montecelio		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3	3.2
	2.42	2.98	2.92
	2.49	2.97	2.87	Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.8
	2.5	2.82	2.79	Watch
	2.54	2.83	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.32)	2.88 ↓ (2.97)	2.93 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guidonia Montecelio
37.5%

Draw
31.5%

Perugia
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

31%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

29.9%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guidonia Montecelio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guidonia Montecelio than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Guidonia Montecelio - Perugia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guidonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stellato G. (G) 66. Vitturini D. 5. Cristini A. 2. Esempio S. 33. Tascone S. 99. Tessiore A. 21. Mastrantonio V. 14. Santoro S. 8. Errico A. 90. Bernardotto G. 10. Spavone A.	1. Gemello L. (G) 26. Calapai L. 31. Tozzuolo A. 28. Riccardi D. 15. Dell'Orco C. 20. Tumbarello G. 16. Bartolomei P. 4. Joselito 77. Manzari G. 11. Bacchin L. 9. Montevago D.
Substitutes
20. Falleni A. 80. Franchini S. 3. Frascatore P. 22. Mastrangelo E. (G) 12. Mazzi G. (G) 24. Russo L. 7. Sannipoli D. 23. Starita R. 4. Toma R. 32. Zuppel D.	19. Dottori C. 30. Giardino C. 98. Giraudo F. 23. Lisi F. 10. Matos 12. Moro L. (G) 18. Perugini M. 71. Rondolini P. 17. Terrnava D. 24. Torrasi E. 22. Vinti L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Tessiore A. ↓, Coscia W. ↑,
39', 0 - 1, Montevago D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Spavone A. ↓, Zuppel D. ↑,
51', 0 - 2, Manzari G. ⚽,
59', Mastrantonio V. ↓, Starita R. ↑,
65', Bartolomei P. 🟨,
76', Coscia W. ↓, Sannipoli D. ↑,
76', Vitturini D. ↓, Stefanelli F. ↑,
81', Bacchin L. ↓, Lisi F. ↑,
86', Joselito ↓, Torrasi E. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Esempio S. ⚽,
90+5', Torrasi E. 🟨,
90+6', Manzari G. ↓, Giardino C. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Perugia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guidonia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guidonia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13
7	Guidonia	8	3	3	2	10:7	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Perugia - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.32%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC
Italian Serie C Group B
20.12.25	Carpi - Guidonia Montecelio	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Juventus U23	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Ternana - Guidonia Montecelio	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Campobasso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TTTWT
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
21.12.25	Perugia - Forlì	4:0 ✺
13.12.25	Campobasso - Perugia	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Perugia - Ternana	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Juventus U23 - Perugia	1:0 ✺
24.11.25	Perugia - Vis Pesaro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
22.08.25	Perugia - Guidonia Montecelio	0:0

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