Match Info

POLAND: Division 1 - Round 24

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion GKS Górnik Łęczna (Leczna)

Referee: Piszczelok M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Polonia, TVP Sport app


	Górnik Łęczna		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.3	1.75	Watch
	4.2	3.5	1.75
				Watch
	4.52	3.61	1.77
	4.59	3.57	1.76	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.75
	4.41	3.6	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.4 ↓ (5.16)	3.5 ↓ (3.89)	1.75 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Łęczna
21%

Draw
26.4%

Arka Gdynia
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18%

23.9%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

23%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Łęczna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arka Gdynia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arka Gdynia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Górnik Łęczna - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Arka will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pindroch B. (G) 14. Szabaciuk F. 6. De Amo J. 18. Barauskas D. 23. Oduko O. 22. Orlik K. 10. Deja A. (C) 16. Zyra P. 15. Krawczyk S. 52. Warchol D. 95. Roginic M.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 2. Navarro M. 23. Hermoso K. 18. Celestine J. 94. Gojny D. (C) 9. Gaprindashvili T. 8. Sidibe A. 39. Kocaba F. 14. Vitalucci H. 27. Oliveira J. 7. Sobczak S.
Substitutes
30. Akhmedov B. 21. Bednarczyk J. 44. Kostrzewski A. (G) 8. Kryeziu E. 77. Litwa M. 20. Malamis P. 91. Szczytniewski S. 7. Traore S. 25. Zbozien D.	13. Azatsky O. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 35. Jakubczyk K. 11. Kocyla D. 99. Majchrzak J. 80. Petrovic Z. 16. Ratajczyk A. 19. Rzuchowski M. 32. Stolc P.
Coaches
Stano P.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Sobczak S. (Pen),
20', Vitalucci H. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Oliveira J. ↓, Kocyla D. ↑,
59', Sobczak S. ↓, Majchrzak J. ↑,
59', Szabaciuk F. ↓, Bednarczyk J. ↑,
61', Oduko O. 🟨,
65', Oduko O. 🟨,
73', Krawczyk S. ↓, Malamis P. ↑,
74', Zyra P. ↓, Akhmedov B. ↑,
74', Orlik K. ↓, Kryeziu E. ↑,
79', Celestine J. 🟥,
80', Gaprindashvili T. ↓, Azatsky O. ↑,
80', Sidibe A. ↓, Stolc P. ↑,
88', Barauskas D. ↓, Traore S. ↑,
90', Kryeziu E. 🟨,
90+4', Navarro M. ↓, Rzuchowski M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ekstraklasa).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Górnik Łęczna won 3.

Górnik Łęczna is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arka is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Górnik Łęczna could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Arka is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Górnik Łęczna won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 18:12 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Górnik Łęczna won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Division 1
09.03.25	Wisła Kraków - Górnik Łęczna	1:0 ✺
01.03.25	Górnik Łęczna - Znicz Pruszków	1:2 ✺
21.02.25	Polonia Warsaw - Górnik Łęczna	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Górnik Łęczna - ŁKS Łódź	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.25	Górnik Łęczna - Zlaté Moravce-Vrable	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTW
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Division 1
08.03.25	Ruch Chorzów - Arka Gdynia	0:1 ✺
28.02.25	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Kraków	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Znicz Pruszków - Arka Gdynia	0:1 ✺
14.02.25	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Warsaw	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.01.25	Arka Gdynia - Warta Poznań	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
25.08.24	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Łęczna	1:2
16.12.23	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Łęczna	0:0
28.07.23	Górnik Łęczna - Arka Gdynia	0:0
13.03.23	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Łęczna	0:1
Polish Cup
01.09.22	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Łęczna	0:1 penalties
Polish Division 1
14.08.22	Górnik Łęczna - Arka Gdynia	1:2
13.03.21	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Łęczna	0:2

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